It’s going to get tougher and tougher for Democrats to win the Electoral College and the White House if present trends hold, new projections from the U.S. Census Bureau suggest.

Democratic strongholds like California and New York appear likely to lose population and multiple electoral votes, while GOP-leaning states like Texas and Florida are likely to pick up votes. That would lead to a shift in 2030.

Those changes could help expand the map for the GOP, unless Democrats can figure out ways to win Texas, Florida or some other states they lost to President-elect Trump.

“You have people shifting from blue states to red states, and it is indicative of a national trend that bodes well just for Republicans in general,” said Republican strategist Constantin Querard.

He suggested the movement is by people who favor the policies of GOP-led governments.

“They’re going from blue states to red states for a reason,” Querard said.

While the census is only conducted once every 10 years, the bureau annually publishes projections of the population nationwide and in each state, giving an indication of where states are trending ahead of the official counting.

The most recent projections showed most state populations growing but at varying rates and with migration driving growth the most.

An analysis from the Brennan Center for Justice showed the changes could shake up political power after the turn of the next decade. The estimations are based on population growth trends that the bureau reported for the period between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2024.

© The Hill