It’s the calm before a potential economic storm — or perhaps the eye of one already underway. In May, the U.S. Consumer Price Index crept up by just 2.4 percent year-on-year — a whisper above April’s 2.3 percent, and still underwhelming by market standards.

At a glance, this points to inflation being contained, despite a combustible backdrop of tariffs, rate suspense and fiscal brinkmanship. But beneath the surface lies an unsettling truth: The U.S. economy is running on fumes, buoyed more by residual momentum than by real strength, and hurtling toward a period of growing instability.

To be fair, the U.S. economy has demonstrated a remarkable resilience in recent years, outpacing global peers despite pandemic aftershocks, geopolitical quagmires, and a revolving door of policy recalibrations. But as JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon dryly observed this month, “there’s a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon.” Coming from one of Wall Street’s most seasoned navigators, the warning carries more than the usual weight.

Indeed, the apparent calm may be the prelude to a tempest. Tariffs — President Trump’s preferred weapon of economic coercion — have yet to fully work their way into the consumer price chain.

Many retailers are still working off inventories imported before the latest round of levies, offering........

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