Senate rankings: 8 GOP seats that could flip in November

With 85 days until the midterm elections, Democrats are increasingly eyeing the possibility of making significant gains in the Senate.

While the Senate map still favors Republicans holding on to the chamber, President Trump’s sinking approval ratings, frustration with the war in Iran and rising prices have pushed a number of GOP-held seats into play.

Democrats need to flip four seats to take control of the Senate while keeping blue states in their hands. They’ve seen significant shakeups that could tilt the board, including in Maine, where they’re anxious to oust longtime incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins, and in Michigan, where a primary win by progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the race for retiring Sen. Gary Peters’s (D) seat has the establishment nervous.

Even winning a fraction of those seats could make a significant difference in the next Congress, as evidenced by the confirmation of Attorney General Todd Blanche by a single vote last week.

Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor at nonpartisan election analysis publication Cook Political Report, told The Hill that Democratic voters have turned out more in primaries this spring and summer than Republicans — showing a potential enthusiasm gap when it comes to voting in the general election. 

Republicans are working to prevent public opinion about Trump from dragging their candidates down or discouraging Republican voters from coming out to the polls.

Here are eight Republican-held seats that Democrats have a shot at winning in November. 

The seat held by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is one of the most hotly contested this year, as Republican candidate Michael Whatley works to shore up his name ID against popular former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat. 

North Carolina has generally sent Republicans to the White House since 2000, with a few exceptions — including former President Obama’s first term. But Cooper won races for governor in 2016 and 2020 with Trump on the ballot. 

Polls show Cooper with a lead over Whatley, a former chair of the Republican National Committee, including a Fox News poll from late July that showed Cooper up 9 points. 

The Cook Political Report rates North Carolina as “likely Democratic,” which Taylor attributed to Trump’s low approval ratings in the state — at about 40 percent — and the selection of Cooper, a well-known and popular former governor, as the Democratic nominee.

But Taylor noted that money from national Republicans is just now starting to show up, which is likely to make the race tighter as November approaches.

“Rarely are races in North Carolina a blowout, especially at the federal level,” Taylor said. “But this is far and away Democrats’ best pickup opportunity. It helps that it’s an open seat, and they have a top tier recruit in the former governor.”

Republicans’ top line of attack is on Cooper’s public safety record as attorney general and governor. A recent ad and accompanying website by the Senate Leadership Fund, which backs Republican Senate candidates, slam Cooper for releasing prisoners during the COVID-19 pandemic who later committed violent crimes. 

Democrats, meanwhile, are hitting the Republican candidate on his ties to a longtime party fundraiser who was convicted of sex crimes and connecting Whatley to unpopular Trump policies.

The state of play in Maine looks very different from a month ago.

Democratic nominee Graham Platner, who originally withstood a growing series of scandals, dropped out of the race in early July after being accused of sexual assault, a charge he denied.

Maine Democrats replaced him with Troy Jackson, a logger and former president of the state Senate, who has similar views as Platner but more political experience.

“Jackson takes away the obvious personal baggage that Platner had,” Taylor said. “He’s less well-known, he doesn’t have as long of a time to, you know, run a campaign, which could be a blessing and a curse.”

Maine has long been........

© The Hill