Bias, laziness and fear — why can’t today’s economists get it right?  

Economists were wrong about inflation. They were wrong about tariffs. They were wrong about GDP growth and recessions and jobs and the labor market. But that doesn’t stop them.

As I write this, more than a few economists are predicting an economic downturn for this year. Some are saying there will be a “very significant” recession in 2027. They’re probably wrong about that, too.

Whom should we to believe? Business owners like myself and my clients often rely on these predictions to help us make decisions about future investments, spending, expansion, hiring and strategy. But today, it’s pretty tough to take an economist’s forecast seriously, given their poor track record. 

Like weather forecasters, “futurists” and other so-called experts, economists don’t really know what’s going to happen. Why? Because economic forecasts are structurally flawed.   

Many economists get their data straight from the government, but that’s becoming an increasingly dubious source. In September, for example, the Labor Department reported that it had overstated job gains in 2025 by 911,000. That in itself would be disturbing if the same agency hadn’t already admitted that it had overstated job gains the previous year by yet another 818,000. GDP revisions can vary widely from original estimates, with even the popular statistician Nate Silver admitting that the history of economic forecasts has been a “complete failure.”  

Business owners need better signals. An economist relying entirely on government data for predictions is handicapped, because most government data comes from surveys and other out-of-date methodologies, calling into question its validity. If you are making decisions based on that........

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