It is less than 18 months since Britain’s Labour Party won a general election with one of the biggest parliamentary majorities in history. Such dominance, which inflicted on the Conservatives the worst electoral defeat in their 190-year history, should have given Sir Keir Starmer a smooth ride as prime minister for a while. Yet it is the recently formed populist, nationalist Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, which has led every major opinion poll since April. Now the question is: will Farage be Britain’s next prime minister?

There are two ways of looking at the current state of British politics. The first is that this is an exceptionally unstable period, exacerbated by a sluggish domestic economy, sclerotic institutions of government and global instability. The mainstream parties have run out of big ideas, leading voters to look somewhere, anywhere, else.

The past half-century has seen long alternating periods of single-party dominance: Conservative (1979-97), Labour (1997-2010) and the Conservatives again until last year’s rout. These marathons have drained the parties ideologically and worn down their leaders. Reform UK was only established in 2021, it still has a freshness and its leading figures have never held executive office, so they don’t have track records to defend.

But the foundation of this narrative is that this too shall pass. Reform UK is a craze which seems all-conquering but is ephemeral. Nigel Farage is a gifted political communicator, but he is an opportunist demagogue, a huckster. He has the quick wit and survival instincts of a carny barker, but his past is littered with internecine feuds. If........

© The Hill