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On Tuesday, the first act in the story of Donald Trump’s remarkable political resurrection comes to a close. The statewide contests in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as some other races around the country, put us at the one-year mark since Trump’s 2024 victory and give us the first straight-up contest between the parties to compete for voters’ support.

The elections aren’t just about Trump, but going back to the 19th century, these off-cycle votes have been referenda on the party in power. In 2021, when Republican Glenn Youngkin won an upset over Democrat Terry McAuliffe for governor in Virginia, it was a serious warning sign for a Biden administration that was suffering from delusions of grandeur. Same for the surprisingly close race in New Jersey, where former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli threw a serious scare into incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.

The pretty evident takeaway in both places was that voters had grown tired of restrictive COVID policies, especially in schools, and that Biden and the Democrats were wearing out their welcomes with persuadable voters — and that Republicans were fired up. It is a lesson that the blue team should have taken to heart, but did not.

Four years later, Trump and the Republicans have been on a tear unlike anything we’ve seen in politics at least since the Obama blitz of 2009, if not the start of the New Deal. Trump is literally and figuratively tearing Washington down, jamming through unpopular legislation and claiming executive authorities that would have made his predecessors blush. And he’s doing it all without the benefit of a massive win behind him. If Biden was taking a risk by going big after a popular-vote win of less than 5 points, Trump is going for broke by trying to transform the country after winning by a point and a half.

Tuesday, we see how it’s paying off.

If the Trump-aligned option wins in any of the key races — the Republican gubernatorial nominees in Virginia and New Jersey, independent New York City mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo or “no” on California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) gerrymandering ballot initiative, Proposition 50 — it would be a very encouraging sign for a Republican Party that right now is bracing for a lot of bad news on Tuesday. Even a substantial overperformance in those contests would be a sign that the Trump transformation has political staying power.

If the expected outcome occurs — an easy win for Democrats in Virginia, a closer but still decisive margin in New Jersey, a dominant performance by Democrat Zohran Mamdani and a double-digit victory for Newsom’s Prop 50 — it will be a sign that the ordinary gravity of politics still applies even in this very unusual moment. And if expected advantages turn into blowouts, it will be the strongest indicator yet that Republicans are facing a reckoning in 2026.

Thought of that way, the results in these races will provide cues to national politicians. If Republicans get skunked on Tuesday, you can bet that the existing GOP dissent over Trump’s policy of executing suspected drug runners, tariffs, the case files from the Jeffrey Epstein investigation, ethical lapses and other issues will grow. There won’t be a revolt, since the 2026 primaries start in just a few months, but there could be more resistance from a party that has been extraordinarily obedient to its president.

Of course, Democrats would very surely overinterpret a good night on Tuesday as a sign that they’re on the right track, a fact very much not in evidence. And a Newsom win in California and a victory by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-N.Y.) ally Mamdani will speed up the tempo for both of their expected presidential candidacies. The fight for 2028 is going to be bruising, and it will start to get rougher after Tuesday.

Any big surprises in Republicans’ favor, meanwhile, would be jet fuel for Trump’s agenda. Republicans wouldn’t need much prodding to go even deeper down the MAGA mine and Democratic despair has been the norm since last November.

On Tuesday, we get to find out which way things are heading.

[Programming alert: Watch "The Hill Sunday with Chris Stirewalt" for the first look at new polls from our partners at Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and guests including Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), candidates from Virginia’s election, and our best-in-the-business panel of journalists, including the great George........

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