Redistricting math muddles midterms

The redistricting math is getting complicated for both parties ahead of the midterm elections, where the House majority is on the line.  

This week has brought good and bad news for both parties: South Carolina’s legislature rejected a GOP map and a federal court blocked Alabama Republicans’ preferred congressional lines, while two judges in Florida and Tennessee tossed out efforts to halt their own Republican-backed maps.  

It makes figuring out which party actually has the edge this fall all the more confusing. 

Let’s break down the redistricting math: 

On paper, Republicans hold an edge in the redistricting battle — they have more than a dozen opportunities to pick up seats in Texas (5), Missouri (1), North Carolina (1), Florida (4), Ohio (2), Louisiana (1) and Tennessee (1).  

Meanwhile, Democrats, as of Thursday, have up to six opportunities to net seats between California (5) and Utah (1). Earlier this month, the party lost their bid to add up to four seats in Virginia.  

All of this means the GOP has an advantage heading into November, but there’s caveats to that math. 

For one, litigation is ongoing in Tennessee, Florida and Alabama. Republicans passed a new map in Tennessee to create a 9-0 GOP edge in Congress, eliminating Rep. Steve Cohen’s (D-Tenn.) majority-Black district. Florida GOP lawmakers also passed a map that looks to net Republicans up to four seats in November. 

Although judges in both of those states blocked efforts to halt the use of the new congressional maps, litigation over redistricting in the Sunshine State and the Volunteer State is far from over.  

In Alabama, Republicans urged the Supreme Court to reverse a federal court ruling that blocked the GOP from using new House lines that would eliminate one of the state’s two majority-Black districts.

Justice Clarence Thomas, who handles emergency appeals from Alabama, did not immediately put the Republicans’ preferred map into place but asked opponents contesting the new GOP map to enter their briefs by Monday. Republicans could ultimately net a seat here in the Cotton State if the court rules in their favor.

The GOP also had a setback in South Carolina this week, when GOP Republican state senators rejected a bid to break up Rep. Jim Clyburn’s (D-S.C.) district. 

The litigation alone raises questions about whether some of these new maps stick ahead of November. 

Another variable will be the midterm environment itself, which is shaping up to look a lot like the 2018 midterms fueled by anti-President Trump sentiment. Democrats have overperformed in special elections and even flipped seats, including a Florida state House district that hosts Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club and a reliably red state Senate seat in Texas this year.  

But that success isn’t linear. While Democrats flipped two Georgia Public Service Commission seats last year, they hit a roadblock earlier this month when two Democratic-backed judicial candidates lost to two Republican-appointed Georgia Supreme Court justices — underscoring that the party still has its work cut out for them in competitive statewide races. 

Democrats also suffered a blow earlier this month when the Virginia Supreme Court tossed out the results of a spring referendum that would have allowed the party to redraw its House map and pick up as many as four seats. 

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report estimates that the GOP could likely gain between five and seven seats, though it still suggests Democrats can win the House........

© The Hill