Republican divisions could bring Democratic midterm additions

There is an ebb and flow to the tide of American politics that makes it confusing, fascinating and exasperating. The New Deal coalition that brought Franklin Delano Roosevelt to power had a decades long generational run. Two dramatic and traumatic events in recent days illustrate the fragility of the unholy coalition which brought Donald Trump to power only ten years ago. These divisions increase the odds for a big Democratic win this November.

The first mega MAGA meltdown occurred at the annual confab of the Conservative Political Action Committee. The group’s chair, Matt Schlapp tried to warn the crowd that a Democratic midterm takeover of the House of Representatives would lead to Trump’s impeachment. Failing to read the room, he asked the right-wing faithful if they favored their Dear Leader’s removal. The crowd reacted with cheers and applause. Schlapp responded that was the “wrong answer.” It certainly wasn’t the response he expected.

Wrong answer or not, the unexpected incident put the simmering tensions within MAGA on full display for everyone to see. Frustrated right-wing activists vented their spleen towards their erstwhile hero for breaking his promise to fully release the infamous Epstein Files and neglecting his “America First” pledge to avoid foreign entanglements by starting an unwarranted war against Iran.

Then things got really ugly with a sharp split between House and Senate Republicans just before the congressional holiday recess.

The Republican congressional majority left our nation’s capital without passing a new budget for the immigration enforcement agencies. ICE and the Border Patrol have been under fire for strong-arm tactics since the killings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good on the streets of Minneapolis.

The filibuster rule and the need for 60 votes in the upper house had permitted Democrats there to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security aside from ICE and the Border Patrol until Trump agreed to rein in rogue ICE agents and agency outrages. Trump refused to compromise, and the rest of the agency’s budget was left in limbo.

Trump’s loyal lieutenants in the House approved the Homeland Security budget, ICE included, but their counterparts in the Senate passed a Homeland Security budget without any additional money for ICE and the Border Patrol, aside from what had already been provided in last year’s so-called “Big, Beautiful” reconciliation bill.

In a new poll for The Economist, only 32 percent of the U.S. public prefer funding the government along with ICE versus funding it without funding ICE. Surprisingly, one-third of Republicans didn’t favor additional funding for the embattled agency, either.

Angry MAGA members in the House, including Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), called for new Republican leadership in the Senate. “Obviously, the leadership in the Senate, and that’s on both sides of the aisle, has a real disgust for this president and House leadership.” It was a clear shot at Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.).

There are many striking examples in national surveys that Democrats are singing in harmony while Republicans sound discordant notes. The new survey for The Economist conducted between March 27 and March 30 shows Democrats are more united in disapproving of Trump than Republicans are in approving of him. There also exists a sharp split between Republican identifiers and MAGA supporters. One out of every five rank-and-file Republicans disapprove of Trump’s performance, but only one in ten MAGAs give him a bad grade.

Midterm elections loom like the Sword of Damocles over the right-wing extremists that call Trump “daddy.” April showers bring May flowers, and Republican divisions in the spring bring Democratic additions for the fall.

Brad Bannon is a national Democratic strategist and CEO of Bannon Communications. He writes weekly for The Hill and hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.

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