Moody’s economist warns recession is once again a ‘serious threat’

Zandi said recession odds were 'uncomfortably high' before Iran conflict

Gas prices have risen about 80 cents a gallon since the end of February

White House insists gas price pain will be short-lived and economy is solid

Zandi said recession odds were 'uncomfortably high' before Iran conflict

Gas prices have risen about 80 cents a gallon since the end of February

White House insists gas price pain will be short-lived and economy is solid

(NewsNation) — The odds of a U.S. recession were already elevated before tensions escalated in the Middle East, but rising oil prices could increase the risk of a downturn.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi warned Monday in a post on social platform X that a recession is “once again a serious threat.” He said weak labor market data had already helped push the odds of a recession within the next year to 49 percent — an “uncomfortably high” level — before the conflict with Iran.

“It isn’t a stretch to expect the indicator to cross the key 50% threshold amid the Iranian conflict and the resulting surge in oil prices,” Zandi added.

The war with Iran has disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the global oil supply typically passes. That........

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