Putin’s Russia rests on an unsustainable contradiction. It is, at one and the same time, both a colony and an aspiring empire. It can’t be both, however, and sooner rather than later Russia will be forced into one or the other direction.

All the signs point to a disheartening conclusion for the Kremlin’s wannabe empire-builders: Russia will succeed as a colony but fail as an empire.

It’s often said that Putin has effectively transformed his country into a vassal of China. That’s true, but Russia’s relationship with its much more powerful neighbor to the south is more accurately termed colonial. Colonies are locally administered territories that are subordinate to the political and economic priorities set by foreign powers. Colonies are not fully sovereign, inasmuch as they don’t make the decisions that determine their fate. Seen in this light, Putin’s Russia is as much a colony of China as medieval Muscovy was a colony of the Mongol Empire.

Putin’s recent visit to Beijing, with most of his ministers tagging along, nicely illustrates just who is the lord and who comes as the supplicant. Not surprisingly, one of the outcomes of that junket was a deal enabling China to lease large swathes of land in Moscow Province. Equally unsurprisingly, Putin has transformed Russia into China’s........

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