An already active start to the 2026 cycle has kicked into overdrive in recent weeks with a major retirement announcement, the passage of a key GOP priority and moves by candidates that could further scramble the chess board.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) made waves in the lead-up to the passage of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” by announcing he would not be seeking a third term next year, throwing the party’s push of retaining the seat in flux.

That was only a prelude, however, to the GOP getting its mammoth tax and spending package over the finish line by July 4, with the newly minted law set to potentially play a far-reaching role as Democrats try to tether Republicans to the Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cuts that were included.

Here’s a mid-summer look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year.

North Carolina

By far the biggest change on this list is to the top spot as Tillis’s decision to retire has further opened the door to Democrats being able to flip a seat they have long been eyeing.

The seat was always considered a top-level race for both sides of the aisle, but the removal of the battle-tested incumbent from the field makes the effort more difficult for the GOP.

In one clear sign of how tight the race is likely to be, the election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating from “lean Republican” to “toss up” after Tillis’s announcement.

Adding to the problems for Republicans is that the news seems to have pushed former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) closer to taking the plunge, potentially giving the minority party an A-level recruit and a real chance to flip the seat.

Cooper, the former two-term governor, has never lost a statewide race in six attempts.

On the GOP side, all eyes are on Lara Trump, the wife of Eric Trump and a Tar Heel State native. In the eyes of multiple Republican strategists, the nomination is hers if she wants it — but whether she wants it is an entirely different question.

Lara Trump had a chance to run for the seat currently occupied by Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in 2022, but passed on the opportunity. She was also floated as a possible appointee to fill the Senate seat of current Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Florida, but Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) ultimately tapped Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), an ally, instead.

“Lara Trump’s very viable,” Budd recently told reporters at the Capitol, shooting down concerns that she has not lived in the state in many years. “She’s from Wilmington, she went to the same high school as Michael Jordan.”

“There’s a great case to be made if she wants it. We of course would be supportive,” he added.

Republicans also see an added bonus to her running: the chance to get the Trump name on the ballot, even in a midterm year.

“She has a golden last name and it’s still a light red state,” one GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said.

Georgia

It’s still early in the cycle, but Republican recruiting woes have emerged in several states, headlined by Georgia.

The GOP is still in the throes........

© The Hill