A rightwing populist party, led by a familiar anti-establishment figure, gathering momentum. A Labour government enjoying a comfortable parliamentary majority but struggling.

I’m talking about British politics but the description could also fit Australia. The summer has revealed One Nation enjoying an extraordinary resurgence. A Redbridge poll has placed One Nation primary support at 26%, eclipsing the Coalition and putting it within striking distance of Labor. Pauline Hanson’s favourability rating is higher than that of Anthony Albanese (38% versus 34%).

This resembles where Nigel Farage and Reform in the UK were around the start of 2025. Fast forward to today and Reform has a clear lead in the polls, one it has maintained since last autumn. As Keir Starmer limps on as prime minister, terminally wounded by the Peter Mandelson scandal, it is Farage who is shaping the political agenda.

So should we expect One Nation to follow the same trajectory as its Reform cousins?

There are some obvious similarities. One Nation is capitalising on public concern about immigration, as Reform has done. Here, for the British electorate, the crisis of migrant boat arrivals has underlined a sense that the country has lost control of its borders.

During Boris Johnson’s period as prime minister, there was a dramatic surge in net migration – the so-called “Boriswave”. Many of those who voted for Brexit did so because of Johnson’s........

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