The belief that bad things come in threes is an old superstition with scant basis in fact. Still, in these disordered times, it’s natural to wonder whether war in Europe and the Middle East will be followed by war in Asia. Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, firing off insults and missiles, recently demonstrated how real that prospect is. Emboldened by its alliance with Russia, North Korea’s unpredictable rogue regime threatens almost everyone.

Yet it is China’s accelerating confrontation with US-backed Taiwan that forms the most alarming panel in this gloomy Asian triptych. China’s president, Xi Jinping, has reportedly told his generals to be ready by 2027 to conquer the self-governing island, which he regards as stolen sovereign territory. US officials warned last week that China already has sufficient capability to invade now, with amphibious landing craft, D-day-style floating docks, paratroopers and expanded air combat and missile forces in a constant state of readiness.

Recent intimidating offshore military exercises – pessimists call them “rehearsals” – and propaganda and disinformation offensives suggest that politically, too, Beijing is preparing for a fight. It denounces Lai Ching-te, elected Taiwan’s president last year, as a pro-independence “destroyer of peace”. For his part Lai is talking tough, describing China as a “hostile foreign force” and enacting “17 strategies” to curb sabotage and spying. A new Taiwanese TV drama,........

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