Britain’s tax debate has changed. Previously the argument was whether there would be rises in an autumn budget. Now the only question is which levies the Treasury will raise.

The shift has been a two-stage process. First, economic data made it look highly improbable that Rachel Reeves could fulfil existing spending pledges, while also sticking within her self-imposed fiscal rules, on current revenue projections. She needs money. Second, the chancellor and the prime minister stopped denying that this was the case. They have not confirmed that taxes are going up, but they no longer pretend that isn’t a reasonable expectation.

One option under consideration, as revealed by the Guardian this week, is to change the inheritance tax (IHT) regime. The range of reliefs that currently limit tax on gifts made in the years prior to death could be replaced by a lifetime cap. This would bring more high-value assets into the scope of IHT. Only a wealthy minority would be affected. The most recent HMRC data shows that

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