The ceasefire in Gaza, due to begin tomorrow, will bring welcome relief from daily violence but amounts, at present, to little more than a fragile, temporary pause in a conflict that is far from over. Israel has not achieved its principal war aim, as defined by its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu: the total elimination of Hamas. Nor has Hamas achieved its objective: the destruction of Israel. The leaders responsible for the 7 October 2023 terrorist atrocities are dead. The organisation’s capabilities are severely reduced. But it has survived – which its supporters claim is a victory for Palestinian sumud (steadfastness).

Most of the 98 remaining Israeli hostages, alive and dead, will not be freed in this first phase of the ceasefire, which is to last for six weeks. There is no agreed “day after” strategy for devastated Gaza, where nearly 47,000 Palestinians have died and where the hungry and mostly homeless residents exist in a state of near-anarchy, plagued by criminal gangs. And there is nothing in sight that remotely resembles what the Americans call a “pathway to peace” – a long-term plan to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict on the basis of two independent, sovereign states.

The success of Qatari, Egyptian and US negotiators in achieving this vital first step should not be underestimated. But neither should the huge difficulties that remain. Netanyahu is at the centre of a

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