Nobody gave the Boers a prayer when the war in South Africa began in 1899. It was farmers ranged against the might of the British empire, and the expectation was that resistance would quickly crumble.

Eventually, might did prevail. Britain won the Boer war, but it was a hollow victory that took the best part of three years to achieve and came at a high cost. The blow to British prestige – coming at a time when its global hegemony was under threat from fast-growing countries such as the US – was severe. Far from highlighting the extent of Britain’s power, it exposed its limitations.

A century and a quarter later, the US risks being embroiled in its equivalent of the Boer war. What should have been a walkover threatens to become a prolonged conflict. The Iranians are using guerrilla tactics, just as the Boers did, with much success. There is little doubt that, in the end, superior US and Israeli firepower will prevail, but at what price?

The oil market tells its own story. The war in Iran has spilled over into the wider Middle East and shows no sign of ending anytime soon. Fears of a global recession are growing – and they are justified. Oil and gas facilities in the Gulf states have been hit by Iranian missiles. Tankers are unable to pass through the strait of Hormuz. The price of a barrel of Brent crude........

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