When the Bureau of Statistics released the GDP figures on Wednesday, the June quarter 0.4% growth figure immediately drew headlines of a rate rise to come, but there is little within the GDP figures that suggests an economy needing slowing.

Prior to the release, the average expectations from banking economists and those throwing a dart at a board was that the economy in June would grow by 0.3%. In the end it grew 0.4% and brought out the suggestions that the growth was “above expectations” and thus in some way hot and in need of cooling off by another interest rate rise.

The market immediately priced in a rate rise by November.

The difference between 0.3% and 0.4% is essentially a rounding error.

And think on this – the Bureau of Statistics revised the growth for the June quarter last year by more than that difference.

Wednesday’s GDP figures suddenly showed the economy didn’t grow as strong in June 2025 than previously thought, but that it grew better in the September 2025 quarter than was first estimated:

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As it is, 0.4% growth is pretty crap.

Over the past 30 years, more than two-thirds of the time the economy has grown faster than that. Given the March quarter had just 0.3% growth, it means in the past six months the economy grew just 0.7% – essentially at half speed.

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