No one, least of all consumers and workers, will win the ferocious trade war that Donald Trump has unleashed. This is “a game of who can bear more pain”, in the words of one analyst. And because trade is at the heart of US ties with its biggest tariff target, China, the rest of the bilateral relationship is likely to deteriorate. That too is concerning.

Yet China, despite the economic struggles of recent years, may see a longer-term opportunity in the current crisis. Beijing’s response to the initial US tariff announcements was measured. Now it vows to “fight to the end” and has imposed an additional 50% tariff on US goods – taking the total to 84% – in retaliation for tariffs that Mr Trump now says will hit 125%.

Do not expect it to falter first. Concessions would likely be taken as a sign of weakness, encouraging the US to turn up the pressure. Xi Jinping is also a strongman who has dialled up nationalism as economic growth has slowed. Backing down would be humiliating, especially when the US vice-president, JD Vance, speaks........

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