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The Guardian view on the IMF’s warning: Britain’s economy runs hot for profits, cold for pay

3 33
15.10.2025

Bloomberg’s headline said it all: “UK Faces Worst G-7 Inflation and Flat Living Standards, IMF Says”. The International Monetary Fund warns that inflation will be higher in the UK than in any other major advanced economy – including in the US, where Donald Trump’s tariffs are driving up costs for American consumers. This while GDP growth per head crawls at 0.4%, the weakest of any major economy. Real wages have stagnated for 11 months. Meanwhile, official figures show that unemployment has climbed to 4.8%, the highest since spring 2021. Forget talk of Britain’s “upgraded growth”; the economy, under Labour, is running hot only for those collecting profits.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) projects that by 2029 average disposable incomes will be £570 lower than today, a fall of 1.3% – the sharpest drop in living standards since records began in 1961. This isn’t a simple case of prices getting ahead of demand. What Britain faces is

© The Guardian