Let’s not mince words. Nigeria’s new tax regime, which landed on our heads this January, is the most ambitious attempt to reshape the state since, well, since the last time someone had a “bright idea” in Abuja. They’re calling it a “generational reset”.

From where I sit, and from where millions of Nigerians actually sit – in traffic, in market stalls, in offices – wondering how to make ends meet, it feels more like a grand, high-stakes gamble.

The economists and the “Africa rising” brigade are nodding sagely. The rest of us are checking our pockets and bracing for impact.

The theory, as always, is impeccable and one I support. Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is a national embarrassment, fluctuating between 9% and 13%, depending on who you believe. For perspective, that’s not just low, it’s pathological. It means President Bola Tinubu’s government, in 2026, is functionally insolvent, unable to fund the basics of civilisation without borrowing or hoping for an oil-price miracle.

The reformers argue, correctly, that this is unsustainable. The new law, with its progressive rates that exempt the poorest and its sweeteners for small businesses, is meant to be the cold shower we need. It is the foundational stone for a post-aid Nigeria, where we finally pay for our own schools, hospitals and roads.

On paper, it’s a work of art. But Nigeria has a notorious habit of chewing up and spitting out beautiful theories.

Here’s the first rub. The government is trying to tax its way into modernity, but it is doing so in a country where the social contract isn’t just broken, it’s a ghost story we tell to scare children.

The state has failed to deliver the most basic services for decades. What, exactly, are we being asked to pay for? For gridlock? For darkness? For sending our children to schools where they learn under mango trees?

This isn’t a technical problem, it’s a crisis of faith. The middle class, with incomes already eroded by inflation, now sees itself as the designated ATM for a government that shows little evidence of knowing........

© The Guardian