Jacinda Ardern, Carlos Lopes, and Laurence Tubiana

In 2015, the landmark Paris climate agreement set the ambitious but necessary goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and ensuring that the increase stays “well below” 2 C. With the average global surface temperature having already reached 1.1 C above the 20th-century baseline, time is running out to reach this goal. Yet governments so far have failed to agree on a strategy for doing so.

At the 62nd session of the UN Climate Change Subsidiary Bodies (SB62) in Bonn last month — the negotiations intended to lay the groundwork for November’s UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil — countries got so hung up on the details of the agenda that little progress was made. Such delays have long characterized the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but they are at odds with scientific reality, which demands rapid and unified action.

Building consensus is, thus, a key challenge facing Brazil’s COP30 presidency. The task ahead is formidable not only because of the challenges inherent in the UNFCCC process, but also because four interconnected global developments are undermining trust and impeding multilateral........

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