Is girls’ education in Pakistan as triumphant as current narratives suggest?

On paper, it appears so. The Statistics and Trends Report 2023–24 on Girls’ Education, prepared by the Pakistan Institute of Education (PIE) in collaboration with the Malala Fund and the Pakistan Alliance for Girls’ Education (PAGE), presents a story of measurable progress: rising completion rates, girls outperforming boys in national assessments, and improvements in school infrastructure.

Within days of its release in Islamabad, a leading English daily devoted an editorial to applauding these gains.

And yet, statistics do more than measure reality; they frame it. Numbers can illuminate. They can also compress.

The report is worth reading, but it demands careful reading, not only for what it reveals about national progress, but for what national averages may conceal.

The primary completion rate for girls has risen from 75% to 89% over the past decade, a fourteen-percentage-point increase representing millions of additional girls finishing primary school. These gains are substantive. They deserve acknowledgement.

At the launch event, the figure of 26.2 million out-of-school children, including 13.4 million girls, was widely cited. However, the official Pakistan Education Statistics 2023–24 lists the current figure as 25.1 million children, including 12.18 million girls and 12.97 million boys. The higher figure corresponds to 2021–22 data, outdated statistics presented as current at a national launch attended by senior officials and development partners.

In a sector where numbers shape funding, reform priorities, and public perception, consistency between published data and public messaging is not a minor technicality. It is a matter of policy credibility.

At the national level, the out-of-school rate stands at 35% for both boys and girls. On the surface, this suggests gender parity within the crisis. But in a country as diverse as Pakistan, national averages can conceal profound provincial divergence.

The reported national gender parity, a 35% out-of-school rate for both boys and girls, is largely a function of demographic weighting rather than uniform progress. Punjab, which accounts for over half the country’s population, records a girls’ out-of-school rate of 22% compared to 32% for boys. No other province shows such a reversal in gender parity. This reverse gap significantly pulls down the national female average and offsets the far higher exclusion rates in provinces such as Balochistan (73%) and Sindh (49%).

The result is statistical parity at the national level, but not equity across provinces. Aggregation produces balance on paper while substantial regional disparities persist in reality.

Education’s share of national expenditure has declined from 13% to 11%. Nearly 90% (and not 94% as reported during the launch) of that allocation is absorbed by recurrent spending, primarily salaries. Pakistan invests approximately 1.5% of GDP in education, far below the 4–6% benchmark associated with Sustainable Development Goal 4.

Enrolment expansion without proportional investment in learning quality risks creating a system that counts attendance but struggles to secure outcomes.

The most significant omission in the report’s public framing is limited emphasis on provincial divergence. Education in Pakistan is constitutionally devolved. Performance is not uniform.

The challenge is not the absence of progress. It is uneven governance, constrained budgets, and disparities that national averages smooth over

The challenge is not the absence of progress. It is uneven governance, constrained budgets, and disparities that national averages smooth over

The provincial breakdown makes that divergence unmistakable.

Provincial Education Indicators and Residual Female Gap (2023–24)

Balochistan male total exceeds 100% due to aggregation inconsistencies in the source data.

Source: Pakistan Education Statistics 2023–24 (PIE)

The national out-of-school rate of 35% masks a provincial spectrum ranging from 15% in Islamabad to 73% for girls in Balochistan. Islamabad demonstrates that near parity is achievable under concentrated governance and resource alignment. Balochistan reveals the opposite extreme: nearly three out of four school-age girls remain outside the system.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa records the widest adult literacy gender gap — 62% for men versus 32% for women. Sindh presents a different paradox: its overall female literacy rate (48%) exceeds that of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, yet its current girls’ out-of-school rate (49%) is higher. Historical urban gains in Karachi and Hyderabad coexist with persistent deprivation in interior districts. Provincial averages can conceal internal inequality — a nuance largely absent from the launch discourse.

Punjab, by virtue of its population size, contains the largest absolute number of women who remain either illiterate or out of school, despite showing the highest percentage of female literacy in the country.

When adult literacy and out-of-school rates are considered together, another pattern emerges. For males, literacy and out-of-school rates combined account for nearly the entire population in most provinces. For females, however, the residual column tells a more complicated story.

Nationally, female literacy (49%) plus girls’ out-of-school rates (35%) totals approximately 84%, leaving a residual of around 16%. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, that residual rises to 27%. These indicators measure different age cohorts and are derived from distinct survey instruments, so the residuals cannot be interpreted mechanically. Migration, demographic structure, definitional thresholds for literacy, and survey undercounting may contribute. Yet the discrepancy warrants inquiry and correction — neither of which was addressed in the report’s public framing.

If enrolment and completion rates improve, but literacy gains do not rise proportionally, the issue may not be access alone but learning quality.

The report also highlights a broader structural contradiction. Female participation in higher education has approached parity; women’s labour force participation remains around 24%. Education without economic absorption limits the transformative promise often attached to schooling statistics.

For policymakers and development partners, the provincial data offers clear strategic direction. Resource allocation driven by national averages risks misdirecting impact. Balochistan’s scale of exclusion demands targeted intervention. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa requires sustained focus on female literacy conversion and learning quality. Sindh’s urban–rural divide necessitates district-level disaggregation rather than province-wide programming.

Future editions of the report would benefit from foregrounding provincial and district-level breakdowns across all major indicators — and ensuring alignment between launch communications and published datasets.

The challenge is not the absence of progress. It is uneven governance, constrained budgets, and disparities that national averages smooth over.

A national out-of-school rate of 35% is concerning. A provincial rate of 73% for girls demands urgency. A 27% residual female gap in one province raises deeper questions about how effectively schooling translates into literacy.

Progress is measurable. So is inequality. If Pakistan is serious about educational transformation, it must move beyond celebrating aggregates and confront the provincial blind spots they conceal. Counting girls is essential. Ensuring that they learn and that learning translates into opportunity is indispensable.

This report marks progress. It should also prompt a reckoning with the disparities it does not fully capture. The next column examines the structural issues in education statistics that lie beneath these numbers.

© The Friday Times