The land between the rivers, the cradle of human civilisation, is being transformed, carefully and deliberately, into its grave. History is not merely repeating itself; it is returning in its most dangerous and unforgiving form. This is the age of water wars.

But unlike the conflicts of ancient Mesopotamia, this is not a struggle of tribes armed with primitive tools. This is a confrontation between nuclear-armed states, executed through satellites, real-time hydrological controls, advanced dam engineering, and selective obedience to international law. To ignore this moment is not ignorance; it is an invitation to catastrophe.

On 23 April 2025, India placed the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, an unprecedented and unexplained action. On 8 August 2025, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague responded with precision and authority.

In its Final Award, the Court characterised India’s conduct as “water weaponisation” and reaffirmed a foundational principle of international treaty law: India has no legal right to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty unilaterally. The PCA further directed India to ensure uninterrupted flows of the Western Rivers, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, for Pakistan’s unrestricted use, as guaranteed under the 1960 Treaty.

Yet law without enforcement is only paper. Despite a binding ruling, the international system watched as compliance disappeared. Almost weekly political statements and media soundbites about “weaponising the treaty” reduced a grave legal and humanitarian emergency into background noise.

Meanwhile, the real violation, documented, measurable, and devastating, continued unchecked.

Between late April and May 2025, India crossed a line that cannot be explained away as diplomacy, technical disagreement, or climate variability. During this period, India deliberately manipulated dam operations on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers, engineering artificial drying of riverbeds followed by sudden, destructive flooding downstream in Pakistan.

Pakistan Warns Of Severe Risks From India’s Indus Waters Treaty Violations

This was not mismanagement. This was not a seasonal fluctuation. This was a coordinated hydrological assault.

Let the evidence speak in numbers, not slogans. At Marala Headworks, the first control structure where the Chenab enters Pakistan, the flow data is unequivocal. On 23 April 2025, inflows stood at approximately 14,800 cusecs. By 2 May, they had been throttled to around 8,000 cusecs.

On 3 May, flows were abruptly released at over 55,000 cusecs, overwhelming downstream canals, eroding embankments, depositing sediment,........

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