The escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran may appear geographically distant from South Asia, but their consequences are already being felt across the region’s farms and food systems. Conflicts in the Gulf rarely remain confined to geopolitics; they transmit through oil markets, fertiliser supply chains and trade routes, eventually reaching the dinner tables of millions.

South Asia, home to nearly a quarter of the world’s population, is particularly vulnerable to such shocks. The region depends heavily on imported energy and fertilisers, making it acutely sensitive to disruptions in global markets. As instability grows in the Middle East, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for oil and fertiliser shipments, the cost of agricultural production in countries like Pakistan, India and Bangladesh is rising.

The first signs of strain are visible in fertiliser markets. South Asia consumes over 70 million nutrient tonnes annually, with India accounting for the largest share, followed by Pakistan and Bangladesh. While urea production is partly domestic, phosphatic and potassic fertilisers — particularly DAP and potash — are largely imported. Pakistan imports fertilisers worth over $800 million annually, while India spends $15–20 billion each year on subsidies to shield farmers from global price volatility.

Recent weeks have seen fertiliser prices rise sharply, in some cases by 30–40 per cent. For farmers, this presents an immediate dilemma:........

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