Agriculture remains one of Pakistan's most important economic sectors. It contributes approximately 24 per cent to national GDP, employs nearly 37 per cent of the labour force, and provides livelihoods directly or indirectly to more than 100 million people. The sector underpins national food security, supplies raw materials to industry, and generates valuable export earnings. Yet the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025–26 presents a concerning picture of a sector under increasing stress.

While overall GDP growth recovered to around 3.7 per cent, agriculture grew by only 0.56 per cent. More importantly, this modest growth masks serious weaknesses in crop production. Major crops declined by approximately 13.5 per cent, while the livestock sector grew by nearly 4.7 per cent and prevented overall agricultural growth from turning negative.

The message is clear: Pakistan's agriculture is becoming increasingly dependent on livestock while crop production faces mounting challenges. The Survey highlights a sector squeezed by rising production costs, declining crop performance, water scarcity, climate change, weak market systems, and growing geopolitical uncertainties. Viewed collectively, these trends suggest that agriculture is approaching a critical transition point.

Signal 1: Major Crops Are Losing Momentum

The most immediate concern emerging from the Economic Survey is the decline in major crops.

Wheat production fell from approximately 31.8 million tonnes in the previous year to around 28.9 million tonnes, representing a decline of nearly 9 per cent. Cotton production dropped by roughly 30 per cent, while maize production declined by approximately 15 per cent. Sugarcane production also fell by around 4 per cent.

These declines are not merely statistical fluctuations. They continue a broader pattern that has become increasingly evident over the last decade. Cotton provides perhaps the clearest example. Pakistan produced approximately 13–14 million bales during the early 2010s. Today, production frequently remains below 6 million bales. The country has consequently become a major importer of cotton despite operating one of the world's largest textile sectors.

A modest reduction in yield due to heat stress, delayed irrigation, pest infestation, or market disruption can now convert a profitable enterprise into a financial loss

A modest reduction in yield due to heat stress, delayed irrigation, pest infestation, or market disruption can now convert a profitable enterprise into a financial loss

The implications extend far beyond agriculture. Cotton alone supports a textile industry responsible for roughly 60 per cent of Pakistan's export earnings. Continued decline therefore affects not only farmers but also industrial growth, employment, and foreign exchange earnings.

Similarly, wheat yields remain considerably below attainable potential. National average wheat yields generally range between 3.0 and 3.2 tonnes per hectare, whereas research trials and progressive farmers frequently achieve 5–7 tonnes per hectare under comparable agroecological........

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