Raging terrorist incidents, declining exports, struggling manufacturing, frozen ties with both India and Afghanistan, shuttered east-west borders, continued political instability and a self-serving political cacophony by the PML-N and PPP — along with a letter by 44 US Congress members to the American Secretary of State on Pakistan's internal political situation — hardly inspire confidence. Will the new notification on the CDF address these mounting challenges? And can the closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border realistically reset Kabul's stance on its "jihadi" allies?

Let us begin with the surge in terrorist violence. In the first eleven months of 2025, Pakistan saw a near 25 per cent escalation in terrorism, recording 1,188 attacks and security operations, which resulted in 3,187 fatalities. As usual, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan accounted for roughly 92 per cent of all attacks and 96 per cent of fatalities. Fatalities jumped from 316 in August to 425 in October — the month Pakistan closed the border — even as talks took place in Doha and Istanbul. Between September and November alone, casualties reached a staggering 1,137, and December opened with yet more carnage.

Pakistan attributes this spike to TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan. Kabul, however, continues to assert that it is doing its best to prevent its soil from being used for cross-border terrorism. The result is a vicious, self-serving battle of narratives — often illogical and accusatory — creating the impression of a near-permanent rupture.

To reinforce its security claims, Pakistan suspended all cross-border human and cargo........

© The Express Tribune