In a blunt address to the 2026 World Economic Forum in January, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared a fundamental "rupture" in the post-Cold War global order - an end, in his words, to the so-called rules-based system. In its place, he described a harsher reality shaped by great power rivalry, economic coercion and weaponised interdependence. Carney urged middle powers to cooperate and pursue strategic autonomy while upholding core values such as sovereignty and human rights.

Is Australia undergoing a similar transition, particularly under the unpredictability associated with Donald Trump? Or is Canberra treating Trump-era disruptions as temporary turbulence, choosing instead to cling to a Cold War-era security framework anchored in the United States? And how does Australia interpret Washington's renewed engagement with Pakistan?

Recent interactions with government officials and policy experts suggest that Australians are acutely aware of the "rupture" Carney described. There is growing recognition that Trump-style unilateralism has shaken longstanding assumptions. Officials concede that middle powers like Australia must work harder to reduce dependence on the United States, diversify partnerships and strengthen both multilateral and mini-lateral frameworks to preempt vulnerabilities. The emphasis increasingly rests on three priorities: preserving a rules-based order; enhancing domestic resilience; and building new strategic relationships. Implicit in this shift is an acknowledgment that........

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