The recent flare-up along the Pak-Afghan border has once again brought into question the Taliban regime's willingness and capacity to curb cross-border terrorism. The October 2025 Doha understanding, brokered by Qatar and Turkey to de-escalate tensions, is seen as a last opportunity for Kabul to prove that it could act as a responsible state. Yet, early indicators suggest that the ceasefire will hold only if the Taliban end their covert patronage of militant groups operating from its soil, particularly the TTP and the BLA.

On the night of 11-12 October 2025, Afghan forces opened fire on Pakistani military posts along the Durand Line, prompting Pakistan to respond.

The Doha talks were necessitated by an alarming surge in terrorist infiltration from Afghanistan into Pakistan's K-P and Balochistan provinces. According to field and intelligence reports, between June and September 2025 alone, Pakistan recorded a 36% rise in organised infiltration groups, or tashkeels, with nearly 4,000 militants crossing into its territory. Strikingly, up to 80% of these infiltrators were Afghan nationals - a steep rise from pre-2021 levels, when Afghan participation was limited to 5–10%.

The Taliban's pledges to prevent the use of Afghan soil against other states - echoing the same assurances made in the 2020 US–Taliban Doha Agreement - remain largely rhetorical. Instead of curbing militancy, Afghanistan has evolved into an operational hub for TTP activities, complete with training centres, safe houses and financial pipelines. This institutional complicity stands in direct violation of international counterterrorism commitments and exposes the fragility of the........

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