U.S. President Donald Trump’s negotiations with Russia are not only occurring at Ukraine’s expense but also carry broader implications for China. Historically, the opposite was true – Henry Kissinger’s strategic opening to China contributed to the Soviet Union’s eventual collapse. Now, the Trump administration is playing a calculated game with Russia, aiming to secure economic benefits such as cheaper raw materials while attempting to reshape Sino-Russian relations. The goal appears to be to pull Moscow away from Beijing and weaken their growing alignment. 

However, a repeat of the Sino-Russian split seems unlikely in today’s geopolitical landscape, as both Russia and China remain skeptical of Trump’s erratic foreign policy and question the reliability of U.S. commitments.

Trump’s confrontational stance toward Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been a political shock for both Ukraine and Europe. Notably, the Trump administration, whether intentionally or not, has adopted China’s rhetoric over the past three years, referring to the Russia-Ukraine War merely as a “conflict” and promoting peace through negotiations with Russia. This approach was first put forward by China in February 2023 and has since been aggressively pushed through state-controlled media and diplomatic channels, including special envoy Li Hui. Now the Trump administration has repackaged this strategy in a more unilateral manner, with a key difference – amid Russia-U.S. talks, Ukraine and Europe are largely excluded from the decision-making process. The fate of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is being discussed behind closed doors, without its participation.

A historical parallel can be drawn to the Yalta Conference of February 11, 1945, when Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin determined the post-war order without consulting China, then weakened by civil war. The Soviet Union’s demands were met in the Yalta Agreement, granting it control over Outer Mongolia, access to Manchurian harbors, and influence over the Chinese Changchun Railroad. At the time, Chiang Kai-shek lamented that “China had really been sold out at Yalta.” Today, Ukraine faces a similar predicament, as its future is being debated without its direct involvement. While Chinese officials have not openly criticized this exclusion, they have welcomed increased Russia-U.S. dialogue, signaling Beijing’s preference for strategic patience.

By labeling Zelenskyy a dictator, attacking him on social media, portraying Russia as a victim, and demanding a $500 billion repayment for U.S. aid, Trump and his circle have signaled a dramatic shift in Washington’s stance. Rather than reinforcing Ukraine’s resilience, the administration appears to be prioritizing stronger ties with autocratic regimes like Russia while undermining Ukraine’s democratic aspirations. This shift disregards the sacrifices........

© The Diplomat