“The Union long united must be divided and long divided must be united. Thus, it has ever been.”

If you are an avid follower and reader of Chinese history and literature, you may sense that the above line is a copy and twist from the opening line of the “Romance of Three Kingdoms.” The current political situation in Myanmar rather bears an uncanny resemblance to the warring state period in Chinese history. Here, the emperor is allegorically represented by Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and the Sit Tat (Myanmar military), which cannot control its empire, the Union of Myanmar.

It is obvious that Min Aung Hlaing and the Sit Tat are in crisis. The “yellow turbans” – the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), People’s Defense Forces, and other resistance groups – are gaining ground. The Myanmar military has been facing military and political humiliations that it has not experienced since the 1950s, the earliest days in Myanmar’s long-running civil wars. Over the past year, it has lost major cities in the north, northeast, and west of the country, as well as two Regional Military Commands, which is unprecedented.

Despite its draconian forced conscription drive, the military is losing ground, equipment, and manpower on a daily basis. The Arakan Army is on the verge of complete liberation of Rakhine State in the west. The Kachin Independence Army is also conducting major offensives in northern Myanmar as we speak. Elsewhere in central Myanmar, the National Unity Government-led forces are slowly establishing their structures of governance, albeit with some flaws. Against this backdrop, the question of what follows the Spring Revolution – what a post-Sit Tat Myanmar might look like – has........

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