Trans-Pacific View | Diplomacy | East Asia

The Paris Prelude: How Quiet Diplomacy Is Shaping the Coming Trump-Xi Summit

This weekend’s meetings between China’s vice premier and the U.S. treasury secretary and trade representative will help determine the outcomes of the big summit in April.

In this May 12, 2025 file photo, U.S. and Chinese delegations, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, meet for trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland.

In global diplomacy, the most consequential conversations often occur far from the flashy glare of leaders’ grandstanding or photo-ops. Such is the case this weekend in Paris, where China’s economic czar, Vice Premier He Lifeng, is meeting two key American officials: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

In the midst of continuing turmoil engulfing much of the Middle East, don’t miss the strategic significance of this Paris meeting. The Chinese and U.S. delegations are preparing the grounds for the coming high-stakes summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, scheduled in Beijing from March 31 to April 2, 2026.

If the leaders’ summit is the political theater, then these Paris parleys can be understood as the last minute backstage priming and polishing – where the final versions of the script will be finetuned and finalized, the compromises sketched, and the potential breakthroughs quietly orchestrated.

Given their continued tensions, neither Washington nor Beijing would concede symbolic ground by attending such negotiations on the other’s soil – thus the decision to meet in a third country. Europe offers both mid-point convenience as well as much needed solitude for sequestering over knots that must be untied.

For these three top officials, their Paris parleys mark the final preparatory round before the coming Trump-Xi summit. Their task is straightforward in principle but daunting in practice: identify areas where both governments can claim progress and reduce the risk that the leaders’ meeting collapses under the weight of their unresolved differences.

Together, these officials embody the trade and finance pillars of China-U.S. economic ties. He Lifeng, China’s vice premier in charge of economic policy and a close confidant of Xi Jinping, has emerged as Beijing’s principal negotiator with Washington. Scott Bessent represents the financial and macroeconomic dimension of U.S. policy, while Jamieson Greer, as trade representative, manages the politically sensitive terrain of tariffs, market access, and trade policy. 

The institutional roles of this trio place them at the center of the current China-U.S. ties. Their bureaucratic networks have interacted regularly and the two sides have already held five rounds of talks – in Geneva, London, Stockholm, Madrid and Kuala Lumpur – to manage Trump’s unprecedented tariff war since April last year.

From that vantage point, this March 14-15 meeting in Paris represents the culmination of months of preparatory exchanges that should have streamlined much of what needs to be finalized.

To be fair, the Paris meeting will not produce any final formal blue prints for the Trump-Xi summit. Their main task will be to hammer out consensus on as many issues as possible, potentially including large commercial deals; tariffs and other trade restrictions; technology and supply chains; and investment and financial relations.

Given Trump’s deficit-driven approach to tariffs, the most immediate deliverables being discussed involve major purchase commitments by Beijing. Foremost among these is a potential contract for Chinese airlines to buy 500 civilian aircraft from Boeing, which could become, in Trumpian parlance, the largest commercial aviation deal in U.S. history.

Such agreements serve a dual political purpose. For Washington, they demonstrate that engagement with China can produce tangible economic benefits for American industry. For Beijing, they signal willingness to stabilize economic relations without having to concede on basic structural fault lines.

Agricultural imports form another major element in healing American anxieties. China is reportedly considering expanded purchases of U.S. soybeans this season, from 12 million metric tons to 20 million metric tons – an issue that resonates strongly with American domestic politics, particularly in the Midwest and Trump’s MAGA supporters.

For China, the most contentious issue is the tariffs that have defined the economic rift between these two economic super powers for nearly a decade. Many of the duties imposed during earlier phases of the trade war – dating back to Trump’s first term – still remain in place. The Paris talks this weekend are expected to explore if some of these tariffs can be modified, paused, or suspended. 

Complicating matters further is the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that invalidated certain tariffs, forcing the Trump administration to reconsider the legal basis of parts of its trade policy.

China, for its part, seeks relief from tariffs that continue to affect its manufacturing exports. Yet Washington remains wary of appearing to soften its stance without reciprocal concessions.

Another major issue concerns strategic supply chains – particularly weaponizing rare earth minerals (on China’s part) and advanced technologies like integrated circuits (on the U.S. side). China dominates global rare earth production, while the United States leads in key technological sectors, including chip design.

Both sides have made these supply chains instruments of their geopolitical leverage. This Paris meeting, therefore, is likely to explore mechanisms to reduce the risk of sudden disruptions while preserving concerns about national security.

A quieter but equally important topic involves investment restrictions. Over the past several years, both countries have tightened scrutiny on each other’s investments, again citing their national security concerns. Negotiators may propose reviving a structured dialogue on investment rules, which could reopen limited avenues for bilateral capital flows. While any major breakthrough is unlikely, even modest progress should help stabilize financial markets.

Diplomatic teams typically ensure that outcomes – however modest – are already set in stone before presidents greet each other. So the most important function of these Paris parleys lies in fine-tuning the choreography and optics of their leaders’ summit while guarding against any diversionary tactics from either side.

Analysts broadly anticipate stability-driven incremental progress at the Trump-Xi summit, rather than a transformative grand bargain. Structural disputes between the United States and China – ranging across Taiwan, trade, and technology – are far too complex to resolve in a single summit. Nevertheless, this Paris meeting could achieve a few critical objectives.

First, it may reduce uncertainty in global markets by demonstrating that both sides remain committed to communicating. In a period of heightened geopolitical tensions from Donbas to the Strait of Hormuz, even modest economic stability between the world’s two inordinately largest economies can ignite significant global synergies.

Second, the meeting between economic officials should help define the tone of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. If negotiators succeed in assembling tangible deliverables, the leaders’ meeting will likely project a narrative of pragmatic cooperation despite underlying rivalry.

Third, the talks at the least may establish the framework for continued negotiations throughout 2026. After all, Trump and Xi’s 100-minute meeting at Busan last October ultimately “accomplished remarkably little” in spite of all the fanfare that had accompanied it.

When Trump and Xi meet in Beijing at the end of this month, the world will focus on the spectacle of presidential diplomacy. Yet the substance of that encounter will depend heavily on the negotiations unfolding this weekend in Paris. This meeting between He, Bessent, and Greer will determine, to large extent, how Trump and Xi’s scenes will play out in Beijing – and the consequences will reverberate far beyond these two countries.

The United States and China together account for roughly 40 percent of the global economy. Their economic relationship influences global supply chains, financial markets, and geopolitical dynamics. For Europe, this Paris meeting reinforces its role as a diplomatic intermediary. For Asia, the outcome will shape economic trajectories. And for emerging economies around the world, the stability – or instability – of China-U.S. relations will continue to define their challenges and opportunities.

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In global diplomacy, the most consequential conversations often occur far from the flashy glare of leaders’ grandstanding or photo-ops. Such is the case this weekend in Paris, where China’s economic czar, Vice Premier He Lifeng, is meeting two key American officials: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

In the midst of continuing turmoil engulfing much of the Middle East, don’t miss the strategic significance of this Paris meeting. The Chinese and U.S. delegations are preparing the grounds for the coming high-stakes summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, scheduled in Beijing from March 31 to April 2, 2026.

If the leaders’ summit is the political theater, then these Paris parleys can be understood as the last minute backstage priming and polishing – where the final versions of the script will be finetuned and finalized, the compromises sketched, and the potential breakthroughs quietly orchestrated.

Given their continued tensions, neither Washington nor Beijing would concede symbolic ground by attending such negotiations on the other’s soil – thus the decision to meet in a third country. Europe offers both mid-point convenience as well as much needed solitude for sequestering over knots that must be untied.

For these three top officials, their Paris parleys mark the final preparatory round before the coming Trump-Xi summit. Their task is straightforward in principle but daunting in practice: identify areas where both governments can claim progress and reduce the risk that the leaders’ meeting collapses under the weight of their unresolved differences.

Together, these officials embody the trade and finance pillars of China-U.S. economic ties. He Lifeng, China’s vice premier in charge of economic policy and a close confidant of Xi Jinping, has emerged as Beijing’s principal negotiator with Washington. Scott Bessent represents the financial and macroeconomic dimension of U.S. policy, while Jamieson Greer, as trade representative, manages the politically sensitive terrain of tariffs, market access, and trade policy. 

The institutional roles of this trio place them at the center of the current China-U.S. ties. Their bureaucratic networks have interacted regularly and the two sides have already held five rounds of talks – in Geneva, London, Stockholm, Madrid and Kuala Lumpur – to manage Trump’s unprecedented tariff war since April last year.

From that vantage point, this March 14-15 meeting in Paris represents the culmination of months of preparatory exchanges that should have streamlined much of what needs to be finalized.

To be fair, the Paris meeting will not produce any final formal blue prints for the Trump-Xi summit. Their main task will be to hammer out consensus on as many issues as possible, potentially including large commercial deals; tariffs and other trade restrictions; technology and supply chains; and investment and financial relations.

Given Trump’s deficit-driven approach to tariffs, the most immediate deliverables being discussed involve major purchase commitments by Beijing. Foremost among these is a potential contract for Chinese airlines to buy 500 civilian aircraft from Boeing, which could become, in Trumpian parlance, the largest commercial aviation deal in U.S. history.

Such agreements serve a dual political purpose. For Washington, they demonstrate that engagement with China can produce tangible economic benefits for American industry. For Beijing, they signal willingness to stabilize economic relations without having to concede on basic structural fault lines.

Agricultural imports form another major element in healing American anxieties. China is reportedly considering expanded purchases of U.S. soybeans this season, from 12 million metric tons to 20 million metric tons – an issue that resonates strongly with American domestic politics, particularly in the Midwest and Trump’s MAGA supporters.

For China, the most contentious issue is the tariffs that have defined the economic rift between these two economic super powers for nearly a decade. Many of the duties imposed during earlier phases of the trade war – dating back to Trump’s first term – still remain in place. The Paris talks this weekend are expected to explore if some of these tariffs can be modified, paused, or suspended. 

Complicating matters further is the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that invalidated certain tariffs, forcing the Trump administration to reconsider the legal basis of parts of its trade policy.

China, for its part, seeks relief from tariffs that continue to affect its manufacturing exports. Yet Washington remains wary of appearing to soften its stance without reciprocal concessions.

Another major issue concerns strategic supply chains – particularly weaponizing rare earth minerals (on China’s part) and advanced technologies like integrated circuits (on the U.S. side). China dominates global rare earth production, while the United States leads in key technological sectors, including chip design.

Both sides have made these supply chains instruments of their geopolitical leverage. This Paris meeting, therefore, is likely to explore mechanisms to reduce the risk of sudden disruptions while preserving concerns about national security.

A quieter but equally important topic involves investment restrictions. Over the past several years, both countries have tightened scrutiny on each other’s investments, again citing their national security concerns. Negotiators may propose reviving a structured dialogue on investment rules, which could reopen limited avenues for bilateral capital flows. While any major breakthrough is unlikely, even modest progress should help stabilize financial markets.

Diplomatic teams typically ensure that outcomes – however modest – are already set in stone before presidents greet each other. So the most important function of these Paris parleys lies in fine-tuning the choreography and optics of their leaders’ summit while guarding against any diversionary tactics from either side.

Analysts broadly anticipate stability-driven incremental progress at the Trump-Xi summit, rather than a transformative grand bargain. Structural disputes between the United States and China – ranging across Taiwan, trade, and technology – are far too complex to resolve in a single summit. Nevertheless, this Paris meeting could achieve a few critical objectives.

First, it may reduce uncertainty in global markets by demonstrating that both sides remain committed to communicating. In a period of heightened geopolitical tensions from Donbas to the Strait of Hormuz, even modest economic stability between the world’s two inordinately largest economies can ignite significant global synergies.

Second, the meeting between economic officials should help define the tone of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. If negotiators succeed in assembling tangible deliverables, the leaders’ meeting will likely project a narrative of pragmatic cooperation despite underlying rivalry.

Third, the talks at the least may establish the framework for continued negotiations throughout 2026. After all, Trump and Xi’s 100-minute meeting at Busan last October ultimately “accomplished remarkably little” in spite of all the fanfare that had accompanied it.

When Trump and Xi meet in Beijing at the end of this month, the world will focus on the spectacle of presidential diplomacy. Yet the substance of that encounter will depend heavily on the negotiations unfolding this weekend in Paris. This meeting between He, Bessent, and Greer will determine, to large extent, how Trump and Xi’s scenes will play out in Beijing – and the consequences will reverberate far beyond these two countries.

The United States and China together account for roughly 40 percent of the global economy. Their economic relationship influences global supply chains, financial markets, and geopolitical dynamics. For Europe, this Paris meeting reinforces its role as a diplomatic intermediary. For Asia, the outcome will shape economic trajectories. And for emerging economies around the world, the stability – or instability – of China-U.S. relations will continue to define their challenges and opportunities.

Swaran Singh is a professor of diplomacy and disarmament at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.

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