Features | Diplomacy | South Asia

India at a Crossroads: Examining Comprehensive National Power and the Road to 2047

Just how powerful is India? CNP may present a better picture than GDP.

Turbulence and conflicts have dominated the first six years of the 2020s. Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the conflict in West Asia have disrupted the normal way of life across the world. COVID-19 disrupted global supply chains, exposing the vulnerabilities of nations dependent on some others for critical needs. That forced nations to look inwards, focusing on self-sufficiency and self-reliance. The Russia-Ukraine war that followed soon after further exposed key vulnerabilities in global security as well as intertwined issues of trade dependency and connectivity. 

However, the mother of all disruptions has resulted from the war in Iran, leading to closure of sea traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point through which almost 20 percent of world’s crude oil and other petroleum products transit. The conflict is thus causing an unprecedented global energy crisis. 

Yet India has been able to wade through these multiple crises successfully and its economy still continues to grow steadily. India developed a COVID-19 vaccine, which it exported to more than 110 countries. India thus won the trust and respect of the world. 

When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, it was India’s message that resonated across the globe: “this is not the era of war.” Simultaneously, it withstood pressure from Europe and the United States and continued to buy crude oil from Russia to safeguard its energy security and exercise strategic autonomy.

Amid the ongoing war in Iran, India was quick on its feet to secure supplies of crude oil. As a result, India has successfully diversified its import basket and met its crude oil import requirements of 5 million barrels per day in June and July. 

India is already the world’s fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP. It has one of the world’s largest armed forces, which proved their mettle during Operation Sindoor in May 2025. For the last 12 years across three elections, India has enjoyed political continuity too as it has given mandate to the same political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party. On the diplomatic front, it has expanded its diplomatic footprint across the Global South and has projected itself as its voice and leader. India is also emerging as a critical player in technology, the renewable energy transition, and supply chain diversification. The indicators in public health too have improved significantly over the years and alumni of Indian institutes of high learning like IIT, IIM, and AIIMS are leading global corporations and business. 

So just how powerful is India? To assess these key parameters of national growth and benchmark them collectively, a broader framework called comprehensive national power (CNP) may present a better picture. 

While there is no universally accepted definition of CNP, it is in effect the sum of a nation’s hard and soft power, which cumulatively dictate how much that country can safeguard its national interests and influence global affairs. It can also be assessed in terms of a nation’s ability to mobilize its economic, military, technological, and soft power resources to achieve its strategic goals. 

The Lowy Institute measures CNP through an “Asia Power Index,” which examines more than hundred parameters across eight thematic measures of power: economy, military, resilience, future resources, economic relationships, defense networks, diplomatic influence and cultural influence. For the year 2025, it has ranked India third, behind the United States and China.

The economy has generally been India’s strongest growth parameter in recent times. India is maintaining a steady growth rate of GDP at 6-7 percent, making it the fastest growing major economy in the world. That is driven by India’s renewed focus on manufacturing, innovation, and exports. 

A large consumer market of more than 1.4 billion people helps sustain domestic manufacturing while the operationalizing of free trade agreements is propelling growth in exports and manufacturing. India has set a target of achieving $1 trillion in exports for FY2026-27, with $530 billion in merchandise exports and $470 billion in services exports. This is against a total export of $863 billion last year. 

India’s push for rapid expansion in digital banking and transaction as well as financial inclusion of its marginalized population too is significant. Key tax reforms like the Goods and Services Tax, which have matured over a decade, are adding to government revenues while production-linked incentives including soft loans are propelling jobs and manufacturing across various sectors. A strong foreign exchange reserve, at $600 billion, gives India a cushion against global volatility while an increased push toward making world-class infrastructure like airports, seaports, expressways, etc. is helping overcome huge losses due to inefficient logistics.  

However, these measures will not suffice. Sustained growth of over 7 percent over the next two decades, a focus on manufacturing and exports, self-reliance, smoother logistics and measures to facilitate “ease of doing business” will be crucial for India to realize its economic goals of becoming a developed country by 2047.

Military power is the next significant parameter to measure India’s strength. India has the world’s third-largest armed forces. It is not only the numbers that is making India a military power to notice. Just as important are India’s technological integration and the push toward self-reliance and domestic manufacturing. 

With a tested and fielded “nuclear triad,” a rapidly evolving tri-service military structure, a formidable and diversified missile program, space technology, blue water naval capabilities, and cybersecurity structures, India is a force to reckon with. Modern weapons platforms like the BrahMos missiles, Akashteer air defense systems, hypersonic missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines can help India to project power well beyond the neighborhood. 

The push toward self-reliance and the participation of private industry in........

© The Diplomat