Even as global attention turned to DeepSeek, which put China at the forefront of artificial intelligence (AI), it is evident that China has yet to achieve its own “Sputnik moment” in the space sector. Some Chinese experts suggest that such a breakthrough could come with the Tianwen-3 mission (2028–2031), which aims to return rock samples from Mars, potentially placing China years ahead of the Euro-American Mars Sample Return mission. However, 2031 remains a distant milestone. 

Meanwhile, the China-U.S. technological rivalry intensifies, and writing by Chinese experts about space is obsessed with the United States, seeing it as the only benchmark deserving attention. The efforts of Europe, India, and Japan in this area are not even seen as worth mentioning to Chinese analysts. Looking at China’s space sector in early 2025, a clear pattern emerges: a methodical, long-term strategy shaped by military ambitions, aspirations for technological dominance, ubiquitous commercial considerations, and the familiar guiding hand of the state in industrial policy. This is a vision, as top leader Xi Jinping has suggested, of space exploration with “no end.”

Over the past quarter century, China has transformed from a minor player in the global space industry into a major power. Two decades ago, China’s space industry was still describing itself modestly as learning through trial and error. Today, Chinese analysts describe its space prowess with positive terms often applied to other industrial sectors: “big but not strong,” “playing catch-up,” sometimes “running with the pack,” and, in certain areas, “leading the pack.” 

The notion of “big but not strong” is drawn from the Made in China 2025 initiative,which included aerospace as one of the 10 strategic sectors. According to that vision, while Chinese companies benefit from market scale and production........

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