The Pulse | Politics | South Asia

The Debate About New Provinces in Pakistan

The real question is not simply how many provinces Pakistan needs, but whether its political system can make smaller units more accountable, representative and effective.

Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi has stirred debate in the country over the question of carving out new provinces. “The system we are living under has collapsed,” he said in July. “The only solution is to take [the matter of] administrative units, provinces or whatever you may call it, to the public.”

Others have spoken on the matter as well. While Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has called for greater decentralization and devolution of power to the grassroots, the director general of Inter-Services Public Relations, Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, pointed to Pakistan’s dramatic population growth even as the country continues to operate with only four provinces. He added that any administrative “reset” should be undertaken through constitutional methods, legal procedures, and political representatives.

The timing and personalities involved make the debate politically significant. It touches on Pakistan’s military-civilian relationship, its hybrid political system, inter-provincial relations and the historical forces that have shaped the country.

Naqvi is often seen as a figure with close ties with the military establishment — the latter is perceived as central to his political rise. Given his political trajectory and the military establishment’s immediate and subtle reinforcement of his statement, it is widely believed that the military is broadly sympathetic to, if not supportive of, the position that Naqvi articulated.

Proposals have ranged from around a dozen units to as many as three dozen. However, the question is not simply whether Pakistan has too few provinces, but whether its administrative map adequately reflects its demographic, linguistic, and regional diversity.

Supporters of new provinces point to Pakistan’s poor social development indicators. With a population of around 250 million, a literacy rate of only 63 percent, some 28 million children out of school and widespread child stunting, the argument for more decentralized and accountable governance is compelling. Smaller administrative units, advocates argue, could bring decision-making closer to citizens and improve the delivery of education, health, and other basic services.

Pakistan’s provinces are highly unequal in population, geography, and administrative complexity. Punjab alone has more than half the country’s population, while Balochistan is much larger geographically but sparsely populated. A provincial government in Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar, or Quetta inevitably faces difficulties administering remote and diverse regions. The demand for a separate South Punjab province illustrates this problem. Southern districts have long complained that political and administrative power is concentrated in Lahore and central Punjab.

Yet creating new provinces could also have explosive political consequences, particularly in Sindh. Any proposal involving Karachi would reopen sensitive questions of ethnicity and political power. The 2023 census put Karachi Division’s population at about 20.4 million. It is a deeply multi-ethnic city, with Urdu, Pashto, Sindhi, Punjabi, Baloch, and other communities living there. The violence that engulfed Karachi in the 1990s, particularly amid confrontations involving the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, which claimed to represent the Mohajirs, and the state and rival ethnic and political groups, remains embedded in the city’s political consciousness.

For this reason, redrawing Sindh’s boundaries would not be viewed simply as administrative reform. It could become a struggle over ethnic identity, resources, and control of Pakistan’s economic center. Demonstrations against new provinces have consequently often been framed as resistance to attempts to alter Sindh’s political balance.

There is also a formidable constitutional obstacle. Under Article 239(4) of Pakistan’s Constitution, an amendment altering the limits of a province cannot be presented to the........

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