Tokyo Report | Politics | East Asia

Japan’s Failed Centrist Experiment 

The CDP-Komeito alliance is breaking apart. But a return to resistance-oriented politics may not be the answer for Japan’s opposition.

The Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), once thought to pose a significant threat to Takaichi Sanae’s hold on power, came to an unremarkable end. After nearly seven months of negotiations among the CRA and its sister parties, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Komeito – both of which had dissolved in the lower house but continued to exist in the upper chamber – the three parties concluded that a complete merger would not proceed. As a result, the CRA is set to split into two groups, with former Komeito members returning to their former party and former CDP-affiliated members launching a new party. One member of the latter group will remain in the CRA to oversee its dissolution.

While the process of ending the CRA is already complicated enough, what makes it even more difficult for voters to grasp is that former CRA members will form a parliamentary group in the lower house. In other words, while the two parties have decided that they cannot be part of the same party, they still believe that they need to act as one, at least within the lower house.

The main cause of the breakdown in negotiations has been said to be the CDP’s reluctance. While Komeito was willing to join the CDP, which essentially shared its policy positions, the CDP ultimately could not reconcile its policies with those of Komeito. Komeito is more right-wing than the CDP’s positions on national security and nuclear energy. 

Moreover, with local elections approaching next spring and the CRA having performed poorly at the February 2026 polls, local branches of the CDP have grown concerned that joining the party could put them at a disadvantage electorally. With the CDP having the largest number of local legislators among the opposition parties, second only to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), it had much to lose by alienating its local candidates and organizations.

However, confidence may also have factored into the CDP’s calculations. While the CRA had consistently struggled in the polls, the CDP has significantly outperformed the alliance in some polls. According to an August poll by TV Asahi, the CDP recorded 4.7 percent support, compared with just 1.8 percent for the CRA. Similarly, an NHK poll put support for the CDP at 2.8 percent, compared with 1.7 percent for the CRA. These figures may have reinforced the CDP’s belief that it could perform better on its own than as part of a broader alliance.

Nevertheless, the CDP’s record in national elections tells a different story. Since its reorganization in 2020, the CDP has either lost seats or significantly underperformed other opposition parties in terms of changes in its........

© The Diplomat