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How Could the Rise of Progressive Democrats Impact US China Policy?

A divide over China, although less pronounced than the divide over Israel, has become increasingly visible among Democrats as progressives have risen within the party.

U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attends a session at the Munich Security Conference, Feb. 14, 2026.

From Analilia Mejia to Abdul El-Sayed to Peggy Flanagan, a progressive winning streak in Democratic primaries has swept across the country in the lead-up to this year’s midterm elections. Unlike most midterm election cycles, where domestic issues dominate the political agenda, foreign policy has been thrust into the spotlight this time, with the Israel-Palestine conflict emerging as the defining litmus test of the Democratic Party. As progressive candidates have rallied behind the Palestinian cause in their battles against AIPAC-backed moderates, the party’s leftward ideological shift could impact not only the decades-long Israel-U.S. alliance, but also Washington’s policy toward its greatest strategic competitor: China. 

Progressives perceive the world through the lens of structural inequality. That worldview lies at the heart of their dissatisfaction with the status quo of the U.S. socioeconomic structure: a widening gap between economic elites and ordinary people. As a result, they fight against corporate interests and political corruption, thereby translating their opposition to economic elites into opposition to the political establishment. The same logic applies to foreign affairs – progressives can readily translate their anti-establishment sentiment into opposition to American primacy, which has long been buttressed by bipartisan support for U.S. military dominance. 

This helps explain why Palestine has become such a powerful cause on the left. Progressives tend to view U.S.-backed Israel as an extension of American power in the Middle East and Palestinians as victims of U.S. hegemony. Hence, although a parallel anti-Israel sentiment can also be seen among some Republicans, progressive Democrats have a fundamentally different motivation for their opposition to Israel. Whereas growing Republican opposition to unlimited aid to Israel is rooted largely in “America First” nationalism and isolationism, progressives seek to challenge American exceptionalism and the so-called U.S. global leadership that they believe perpetuates inequality. 

Today, the rise of China is increasingly portrayed as a challenge to the U.S.-led global order. As a result, neither Republicans nor Democrats can easily depart from the bipartisan consensus that Beijing represents Washington’s greatest strategic competitor. Whoever is perceived as “soft on China” is almost certain to face attacks from the other side of the aisle. Both parties have thus become more inclined to play the “China card” whenever they deem it necessary – either to inoculate themselves against accusations of weakness or to gain a political advantage. 

But the divide over China, although less pronounced than the divide over Israel, has become increasingly visible among Democrats with the rise of progressives. One vision, exemplified by establishment figures such as former President Joe Biden, sees a world defined by strategic competition, in which China-U.S. confrontation is unavoidable across a range of domains, from the economy and technology to culture. The other, exemplified by progressives such as Senator Bernie Sanders, rejects the self-fulfilling logic of the Thucydides Trap and champions a China policy centered on restraint and cooperation.

This progressive vision was on display in the remarks on Taiwan made by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, known widely as AOC, at the Munich Security Conference this year. Despite her stumbles, AOC – arguably the biggest star among the progressive camp – captured an ethos fundamentally different from a competition-based China policy. Rather than stressing how the United States would defend Taiwan and democracy through strength, as many centrist Democrats might, she emphasized the need to work toward ensuring that the United States and China “never get to that point.”

Although it may still take time for AOC to take the national stage as a leading voice on foreign policy, her remarks epitomize a core tenet of progressive........

© The Diplomat