In almost four years of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has become evident that Moscow’s technological alliances have reshaped not only the future of the battlefield but also the foundations of international security. The threats no longer lie in the number of tanks or missiles that a given army has. As the war in Ukraine has shown, technological advances in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and advanced radar jamming technologies have allowed for asymmetric application of such technologies, often rendering classical concepts of deterrence, defense, and security architecture obsolete.

At the center of this shift stands a China-enabled drone supply network that is rapidly transforming Russia’s capacity for sustained, cost-effective, and scalable warfare. What makes this transformation strategically dangerous for the United States and its allies is not only what it means for Ukraine today but what it signals for future conflicts across NATO’s eastern flank and the Asia-Pacific. 

Chinese-supplied components in Shahed-type and now Geran drones enable longer-range, more cost-effective, and precise strikes. The result is an increasing asymmetric threat to the European continent and beyond. Even more alarming are reverse technological transfers to Moscow’s other Asian allies, such as North Korea, which has been rumored to receive both technology and manufacturing training for the Shahed/Geran drones.

If left unaddressed, this China-enabled supply chain risks becoming the backbone of a new model of warfare that exploits cost asymmetries, sanctions loopholes, and alliance-based technology transfers across multiple domains simultaneously. 

Shahed-136 and Geran Drones

Originally supplied by Iran, Shahed-136 drones emerged over Ukrainian skies as early as October 2022, coinciding with technological transfers that were necessary to establish a production line in the Alabuga facility. 

Three years later, Shahed-type drones are no longer Iranian. After being extensively upgraded and retrofitted for domestic production, these drones now bear the official designation of Geran-1, Geran-2, and, most recently, Geran-3. Chinese-made components have played (and are still playing) the most critical role in Russia’s modernization efforts and the growing effectiveness of the Geran weapons-systems family.

Chinese involvement in the Shahed-type drone developments, and later Geran, can be split into two coinciding factors: growing direct involvement in production and unrestricted supply of critical technological components. While the Chinese government has denied providing lethal weapons to either side of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR), Moscow now boasts entirely new Gerbera variants of Shahed drones, rumored to be co-developed with Chinese manufacturers. There are also rumors of long-range drones being manufactured in China. 

The overall trend of China’s direct support of Russia’s UAV war machine is increasing at an alarming rate. Chinese investors even recently acquired a stake in one of Russia’s drone manufacturing companies. 

Chinese-Enabled........

© The Diplomat