Since April 1997, when Russian President Boris Yeltsin and China’s leader Jiang Zemin first announced their intention “to promote the multipolarization of the world and the establishment of the new international order,” academics and policymakers alike have both fretted over their strengthening ties and debated whether the China-Russia partnership would eventually materialize into a political-military alliance pointed at the United States and Europe. 

Today is no different. The “no limits” joint statement, signed by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and China’s subsequent transfer of critical dual-use technologies and intermediary role in circumventing Western sanctions, has resurfaced such debates.

While ties have certainly gotten closer since the 1990s, recent indicators may point to strains in the Sino-Russian relationship. From around the time of Putin’s last visit to Beijing in May 2024 to mark the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Russia, Chinese leaders have substantially shifted China’s official rhetoric regarding Russia. The 2024 meeting’s bilateral statement, in sharp contrast to the 2022 statement, lacked mention of “no limits” or “no forbidden areas of cooperation,” and instead emphasized the China-Russia relationship being defined by China’s traditional foreign policy principles of “non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties.”

Similar shifts seem to be occurring in the personal relationship between Xi and Putin. If Putin described their relationship “as........

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