Crossroads Asia | Diplomacy | Central Asia

Kazakhstan’s Pragmatic Foreign Policy Faces Uncertainty Amid Attacks Across the Middle East

Since the Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran on February 28, which triggered numerous regional airstrikes, Kazakhstan has scrambled to maintain positive relations across the region.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian made an official visit to Astana in December 2025.

As missile and drone strikes began to rain down on the Middle East, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and the Kazakh government had to think fast. Not only did they need to evacuate citizens, particularly from Gulf states, following the attacks, but they also had to manage Kazakhstan’s relations with the countries involved in the conflict.

Unlike many other states, Kazakhstan has not picked a side in the ongoing conflict. Instead, it maintains good diplomatic relations with Iran, Israel, most Gulf states, and the United States. These relationships prompted Tokayev to take action, calling several leaders of the countries affected by the strikes.

Notably, however, Tokayev has still not expressed direct support for one of the key targets in the conflict, raising questions about how Kazakhstan will continue its pragmatic foreign policy as the conflict continues.

Along with leaders from Azerbaijan, Israel, Jordan, Turkiye, and several Gulf states, Tokayev attended the inaugural meeting of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace on February 19. With a proposal to “establish a special President Trump’s Award of the Board of Peace,” the Kazakh president briefly went viral following the meeting. Whether such flattery would continue today is uncertain, given that Israel and the United States launched a bombing campaign against Iran only nine days later.

In response to the attacks, Iran fired back, not only at Israel and U.S. naval vessels but also at several member states of the Board of Peace, including the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, all of which host U.S. military facilities or assets. Following the attacks, Tokayev contacted the leaders of these countries, as well as Oman, which was also struck by missiles.

The reported content of these conversations appeared largely similar: Tokayev expressed solidarity and support for the affected countries and exchanged Ramadan greetings. A special note of thanks was sent to the Saudi government for assisting in the evacuation of Kazakh citizens, while Tokayev also expressed regret that the Islamic community was failing to demonstrate mutual respect during this period.

However, no such direct support or message of solidarity has been extended by Tokayev to Iran, despite the country being the initial target of the February 28 attacks. Instead, Tokayev sent Senate Chairman Maulen Ashimbayev to the Iranian embassy to express the president’s condolences to the Iranian people. Even so, no direct statement of support for the Iranian state was issued.

This is notable given the relatively close relations between the two countries in recent years. During a visit to Iran in 2022, Tokayev and Iranian officials agreed to expand mutual trade. Less than three months before the attack, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian  made an official visit to Astana.

As previously described in The Diplomat, this same period has also seen Kazakhstan strengthen ties with both the United States and Israel. This was particularly evident during the C5+1 meeting last year, where several agreements on minerals and trade were signed. At the meeting, Kazakhstan also made the largely symbolic decision to join the Abraham Accords, essentially reaffirming the diplomatic relations it has maintained with Israel for many years.

Further evidence of these ties appeared in a report by Oil Change International, which suggested that Kazakhstan supplied nearly 30 percent of Israel’s crude oil imports between November 2023 and October 2025.

A look at Kazakhstan’s main export markets also provides insight into the country’s strategic positioning. While Kazakhstan exports goods, primarily cereals, to Iran, the volume remains far lower than exports to the UAE, Israel, the United States, and Azerbaijan. This also helps explain why Tokayev personally condemned Iran’s alleged attack on an Azerbaijani airport earlier in the conflict.

A slight shift came on March 7, when Tokayev sent a direct message of thanks to Pezeshkian after Iran announced it would refrain from attacking neighboring states. Even then, however, Tokayev stopped short of offering any explicit support to Iran following the large-scale attacks.

Overall, Tokayev’s actions point to a leader prioritizing regional stability and economic relations above all else. A similar approach was visible last year, when Kazakhstan moved toward closer engagement with Taliban-led Afghanistan.

As strikes continue across the Middle East, Iran appears to have lost significant strategic ground. Whether Kazakhstan will eventually issue statements aimed at balancing its position toward Iran remains uncertain. For now, however, Kazakhstan seems less interested in choosing allies than in maintaining stable trading partners.

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As missile and drone strikes began to rain down on the Middle East, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and the Kazakh government had to think fast. Not only did they need to evacuate citizens, particularly from Gulf states, following the attacks, but they also had to manage Kazakhstan’s relations with the countries involved in the conflict.

Unlike many other states, Kazakhstan has not picked a side in the ongoing conflict. Instead, it maintains good diplomatic relations with Iran, Israel, most Gulf states, and the United States. These relationships prompted Tokayev to take action, calling several leaders of the countries affected by the strikes.

Notably, however, Tokayev has still not expressed direct support for one of the key targets in the conflict, raising questions about how Kazakhstan will continue its pragmatic foreign policy as the conflict continues.

Along with leaders from Azerbaijan, Israel, Jordan, Turkiye, and several Gulf states, Tokayev attended the inaugural meeting of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace on February 19. With a proposal to “establish a special President Trump’s Award of the Board of Peace,” the Kazakh president briefly went viral following the meeting. Whether such flattery would continue today is uncertain, given that Israel and the United States launched a bombing campaign against Iran only nine days later.

In response to the attacks, Iran fired back, not only at Israel and U.S. naval vessels but also at several member states of the Board of Peace, including the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, all of which host U.S. military facilities or assets. Following the attacks, Tokayev contacted the leaders of these countries, as well as Oman, which was also struck by missiles.

The reported content of these conversations appeared largely similar: Tokayev expressed solidarity and support for the affected countries and exchanged Ramadan greetings. A special note of thanks was sent to the Saudi government for assisting in the evacuation of Kazakh citizens, while Tokayev also expressed regret that the Islamic community was failing to demonstrate mutual respect during this period.

However, no such direct support or message of solidarity has been extended by Tokayev to Iran, despite the country being the initial target of the February 28 attacks. Instead, Tokayev sent Senate Chairman Maulen Ashimbayev to the Iranian embassy to express the president’s condolences to the Iranian people. Even so, no direct statement of support for the Iranian state was issued.

This is notable given the relatively close relations between the two countries in recent years. During a visit to Iran in 2022, Tokayev and Iranian officials agreed to expand mutual trade. Less than three months before the attack, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian  made an official visit to Astana.

As previously described in The Diplomat, this same period has also seen Kazakhstan strengthen ties with both the United States and Israel. This was particularly evident during the C5+1 meeting last year, where several agreements on minerals and trade were signed. At the meeting, Kazakhstan also made the largely symbolic decision to join the Abraham Accords, essentially reaffirming the diplomatic relations it has maintained with Israel for many years.

Further evidence of these ties appeared in a report by Oil Change International, which suggested that Kazakhstan supplied nearly 30 percent of Israel’s crude oil imports between November 2023 and October 2025.

A look at Kazakhstan’s main export markets also provides insight into the country’s strategic positioning. While Kazakhstan exports goods, primarily cereals, to Iran, the volume remains far lower than exports to the UAE, Israel, the United States, and Azerbaijan. This also helps explain why Tokayev personally condemned Iran’s alleged attack on an Azerbaijani airport earlier in the conflict.

A slight shift came on March 7, when Tokayev sent a direct message of thanks to Pezeshkian after Iran announced it would refrain from attacking neighboring states. Even then, however, Tokayev stopped short of offering any explicit support to Iran following the large-scale attacks.

Overall, Tokayev’s actions point to a leader prioritizing regional stability and economic relations above all else. A similar approach was visible last year, when Kazakhstan moved toward closer engagement with Taliban-led Afghanistan.

As strikes continue across the Middle East, Iran appears to have lost significant strategic ground. Whether Kazakhstan will eventually issue statements aimed at balancing its position toward Iran remains uncertain. For now, however, Kazakhstan seems less interested in choosing allies than in maintaining stable trading partners.

Albert Otkjær is a journalist focusing on post-Soviet countries.

Kazakhstan-Iran relations

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