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Kazakh Journalists are Being Fined for Surveying Public Opinion on the Upcoming Referendum

As Kazakhstan prepares to vote on crucial constitutional changes, media workers are being fined for asking the public about the vote.

On February 11, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree calling a referendum on a new constitution, including the introduction of a new unicameral parliament. On March 15, citizens will be asked: “Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was published in the media on February 12, 2026?”

Since the referendum was announced, opportunities to understand public opinion on the vote have been tightly restricted. In at least three instances, fines have been handed out to journalists and media outlets for conducting what the authorities deem to be surveys related to the referendum. Meanwhile, polling organizations have been denied permission to poll citizens about the vote.

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On February 11, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree calling a referendum on a new constitution, including the introduction of a new unicameral parliament. On March 15, citizens will be asked: “Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was published in the media on February 12, 2026?”

Since the referendum was announced, opportunities to understand public opinion on the vote have been tightly restricted. In at least three instances, fines have been handed out to journalists and media outlets for conducting what the authorities deem to be surveys related to the referendum. Meanwhile, polling organizations have been denied permission to poll citizens about the vote.

The referendum was mentioned publicly for the first time in September last year, with Tokayev airing a possible vote in 2027. The announcement of a date this month prompted criticism that the referendum is being rushed, as previously reported by The Diplomat. In addition, the constitutional changes are wide-ranging and are presented to voters as a single package, allowing only a “yes” or “no” vote.

As the vote approaches, public discussion of the referendum appears to be just as restricted, if not more so, than during the 2024 referendum on nuclear power.

“Will You Take Part in the Referendum?”

Following Tokayev’s announcement, Radio Azattyk journalist Makpal Mukankyzy conducted a poll on X, formerly Twitter, asking her followers whether they would “take part in the referendum” or not. While the journalist said she did not believe the poll could influence the vote, prosecutors argued that she had violated the law on referendums. The court agreed and imposed a $90 fine.

Mukankyzy has said she will appeal the ruling. Since then, similar cases have emerged, with a second journalist and one media outlet also fined for conducting what the Prosecutor General’s Office described as unauthorized surveys.

The media outlet in question is Uralskaya Nedelya (Uralsk Weekly), which was fined $260 for breaching electoral legislation. As in Mukankyzy’s case, the ruling stemmed from the outlet asking its Telegram subscribers whether they would participate in the referendum.

This is not the first time that Uralskaya Nedelya editor-in-chief Tamara Yeslyamova has faced such charges. In 2024, she was fined $230 for conducting a vox pop ahead of the nuclear power referendum. As in the earlier case, Yeslyamova has said she intends to appeal the decision.

Under Kazakh law, surveys related to referendums must be approved in advance by the relevant authorities.

“The survey may be conducted by legal entities registered in accordance with the legislation of the Republic of Kazakhstan and having at least five years of experience in conducting public opinion polls, having previously notified the Central Election Commission in writing with copies of relevant documents attached,” the Prosecutor General’s Office stated in a press release.

This leaves the definition of what constitutes a “survey” open to interpretation by the courts. So far, however, the authorities have treated questions on social media about participation in the referendum as surveys covered by the law.

One organization that sought permission to conduct polling is Demoscope, a public opinion monitor operating under the International Center for Journalism MediaNet. Despite having conducted public opinion polls on various topics since 2012, Demoscope said its request to conduct a survey on the “Perception of the Constitutional Reform of Kazakhstan” was denied.

According to Demoscope, the request was rejected because of its cooperation with the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation, which is historically affiliated with Germany’s Christian Democratic Union. The Central Election Commission argued that this relationship violates Kazakhstan’s constitutional law, which states that: “Any direct or indirect participation by international organizations and international public associations… in the financing or other support of activities related to the referendum is prohibited.”

Disagreeing with the decision, Demoscope said its proposed poll was not directly linked to the upcoming referendum and urged the commission to reconsider. If the decision is upheld, it would be the second time that a Demoscope survey related to a referendum topic has been rejected, following a similar refusal ahead of the 2024 nuclear power vote.

While some journalists and media outlets have been fined for conducting what the authorities describe as illegal surveys, and others have been denied permission to conduct polling at all, the Public Opinion Research Institute was allowed to carry out a survey. The institute, which has close ties to the Kazakh state, reported that 78 percent of respondents supported the constitutional changes.

As the referendum approaches, the Kazakh authorities are moving to restrict independent polling and public discussion of the proposed constitution. With independent surveys curtailed, the outcome of the vote will not become clear before March 15.

Albert Otkjær is a journalist focusing on post-Soviet countries.

2026 Kazakhstan constitutional referendum

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev

Kazakhstan media freedom

Kazakhstan referendum

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