Crossroads Asia | Economy | Central Asia

The China-US Clash Over Critical Minerals Is an Opportunity for Kazakhstan 

Amid China-U.S. competition over critical minerals, Kazakhstan is positioned to become a key partner for Washington. 

Kazakhstan has become essential in the evolving critical minerals rivalry between the United States and China, itself a key facet of the tumultuous trade war between them. With recent initiatives on the part of Trump administration, Kazakhstan’s prominence and potential as a vital U.S. partner had grown considerably. 

Trade Rivalry between the U.S. and China 

The China-U.S. trade war began during Trump’s first presidential term in 2018, when Washington imposed 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. China retaliated with identical tariffs on a comparable $50 billion worth of American goods, particularly agricultural, energy, and automotive products. By 2019, the U.S. raised the sum of the tariffed goods up to $360 billion, and China responded with the imposition of tariffs on $110 billion goods. Although in 2020, the states were able to reach a truce – the Phase One agreement – their competition did not cease. While the United States scaled up its tariffs on the Chinese technology sector, China elaborated its legal tools to restrict the export of sensitive technologies. 

The trade tensions continued when U.S. President Joe Biden came to office. He increased tariffs on electric vehicles, solar cells, and batteries, as well as put restrictions on the export of semiconductors. This time, China responded strategically by targeting the most vulnerable part of the U.S. import system – the supply of critical minerals. China imposed constraints on the export of critical minerals and rare earth elements (REEs). In particular, the Chinese government restricted the export of gallium, germanium and graphite, which are essential critical minerals for defense and electric vehicle batteries.

The peak in reciprocal tariffs and export controls came in the first year of the second Trump administration. Tariffs skyrocketed  following “Liberation Day” but were  suspended when China again put export controls on key critical minerals, such as tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium. The countries agreed on a 90-day truce in May 2025, and Trump had to lower the tariff rates to 30 percent in return for access to Chinese critical minerals. In September, the U.S. Department of Commerce tightened export controls on Chinese companies that accessed restricted American technologies through affiliates and third parties. In response, China declared extensive rare earth export controls, overtly demonstrating its leverage to retaliate. This action again led Trump to concede to another truce for a one-year period during his meeting with President Xi Jinping in the APEC summit in South Korea on October 30. 

In February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs. However, the administration is seeking alternative ways to impose the penalties it desires on foreign countries, including China. 

Critical minerals and REEs have been central to the trade war because of China’s dominance in the global supply chain. China controls around 60 percent of global production and 85 percent of the processing capacity of these strategic minerals. China is also the largest exporter of critical minerals to the U.S., supplying over half of U.S. demand for 24 critical minerals and 90 percent of REEs demand in 2024. Given the importance of mineral raw materials for the development of semiconductor manufacturing, green technologies and defense infrastructure, China’s primacy puts the U.S. in a vulnerable position.

Kazakhstan as a Strategic Partner in the U.S. Critical Minerals Supply Chain

Acknowledging the limits in critical minerals supply chain and their adverse impact on trade competition with China, the United States has prioritized the development of critical minerals in collaboration with other resource-rich countries. One of them is Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia. Kazakhstan possesses 21 out of 50 minerals that are classified as critical in the U.S. The country holds large reserves of uranium, copper, chromite, gold, titanium, tungsten, and rare earth elements. It is estimated that Kazakhstan may contain third largest global reserves of rare earths. In total, the country’s mining sector accounts for 12 percent of GDP. 

The government of Kazakhstan has also demonstrated a strong interest in developing its minerals industry. For example, in 2025, it allocated $127 million for geological exploration, more than any other Central Asian state. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has emphasized the role of rare earths in the long-term........

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