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Home – California Politics & News – If 2 Dems Advance in CA Gov’s Race, Conservative Vote Split Will Be a Key Factor

If 2 Dems Advance in CA Gov’s Race, Conservative Vote Split Will Be a Key Factor

Tuesday is decision day in California. Voters head to the polls in the state’s top-two “jungle” primary, a system in which every candidate competes on a single ballot and only the top two vote-getters advance to November—regardless of party affiliation. 

Designed to produce more moderate outcomes, the jungle primary instead often functions as a trap for smaller parties and divided fields. In a low-turnout election, the arithmetic is merciless, and this year’s contest for California governor has become a textbook case.

Recent polling shows Xavier Becerra holding a clear lead. The Emerson College poll conducted May 27-28 placed Becerra at 28%, Tom Steyer at 22%, Steve Hilton at 21%, and Chad Bianco at 12%. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey showed Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, Steyer at 19%, and Bianco between 11% and 13%. The Public Policy Institute of California’s mid-May survey had Becerra at 23%, Hilton at 20%, Steyer at 15%, and Bianco at 13%. Becerra is heavily favored to finish first. 

The intense battle is for the second and final advancement spot, and it sits squarely inside the margin of error.

Republicans constitute roughly 25% of California’s registered voters. When sympathetic no-party-preference voters are added in a low-turnout primary environment, the conservative-leaning share of the electorate typically lands between 22% and 25%. In theory, that should be enough to secure one of the two November slots. In practice, the conservative vote is currently fractured between Hilton and Bianco. That split is the central tension of the race.

Hilton’s campaign has argued that Bianco’s support is drawn almost entirely from the same pool of Republican and........

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