Just five years ago, Lady Gaga and Glenn Close were in a tight race of Best Actress. Olivia Colman would spoil the face-off—but not before Gaga could win her own statue and capture headlines with a yearning performance of “Shallow”. Now, with Joker: Folie à Deux, one has to wonder whether Gaga will make it to the Oscars again.

Folie à Deux landed with a thud. It cratered at the domestic box office, pulling in a meager ​​$37.8 million, $10-20 million behind expectations. Worse, it received a CinemaScore of a D, reflecting the general distaste for the surprisingly boring, hodge-podge film. Given the alt-right internet bro fervor of the last Joker, many cinemas were expecting a blowout. The Boston Common AMC had its costume policy planted in the middle of its entrance. But the fanboys didn’t show—the theater, half empty, was mostly older couples.

The film’s failure is bad news for Gaga, who’s still nascent in her acting career. In just three films, she’s moved from prestige inductee to critically derided. Back in 2019, Gaga was a beacon of optimism for pop stars looking to make the jump; now, she’s stuck in a creative rut. Worse yet, other radio mainstays like Selena Gomez and Ariana Grande are placed squarely in the Oscars dialogue this year, while Gaga lags behind. It’s sent dozens of gay men into a tailspin, acting as would-be managers planning her next moves.

How’d we get here? It all dates back to A Star is Born, Gaga’s nose-tracing, makeup-rejecting smash hit.

Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born

The material was close to home: Ally Maine shot up to fame quite suddenly, as Gaga did with “Just Dance.” Barbra Streisand, who starred in the........

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