The geopolitical temperature is rising in the Red Sea.

Ethiopia is threatening Eritrea, its diminutive neighbour, making a claim on the Eritrean port of Assab. Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed recently remarked that regaining Red Sea access would correct a “historical mistake” and address an “existential question” for landlocked Ethiopia.

Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel snapped back, accusing Ethiopia of irredentism and fomenting “an unjustified war”.

Public responses were muted on the streets of Asmara, the Eritrean capital, where I recently visited. The media is entirely government controlled, so it is possible that few Asmarinos were aware of these developments. And while I found Eritreans hospitable and engaging, they live under the most repressive rule in Africa, so few dare to talk politics.

Conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia would have unpredictable effects across the strategically important Horn of Africa.

To some extent, Eritrea’s relations with Ethiopia – and the question of its access to Assab – explain the dire state of politics in Eritrea.

After a 1998 border clash with........

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