John Healey’s steady-as-she-goes budget was a picture of a government doing its best to offer “what help we can afford”, while weathering the economic storms. But despite its 98 policy measures, decisions on some of the biggest issues appear to have been kicked down the road.

In the meantime, it seems that the real incomes of UK households could fall by 1% next year. This forecast, from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), offered a grim picture. It also predicted UK economic growth of just 1%, as well as higher inflation and interest rates. The OBR, the government’s independent spending watchdog, has also suggested that by 2029-30 households will still be only 1% better off than they were ten years previously. This would be the slowest growth in real disposable household income for generations.

And in further bad news for households, the OBR estimated that the tax collected by the government as a percentage of GDP would reach record levels by 2030-31 – six percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels. Taxes are already higher than at any time since the second world war.

The budget was enthusiastically backed by Labour members. But it can also be seen as a holding operation by the chancellor, reassuring the markets while leaving the prime minister the space to develop his vision of the causes close to his heart. These of course include social care, devolution and welfare reform.........

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