US President Donald Trump hailed the deal ending the US-Israel war with Iran with a triumphant message: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” he wrote on his online social media platform.

But how realistic is a swift resumption of ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz?

Oil traders are hopeful. The benchmark price for Brent crude oil has fallen below US$80 a barrel to US$78.96 (A$111.82) for the first time since early March. This signals a belief that Trump’s Iran deal is going to stick, despite the president claiming a peace deal about 40 times

The US Navy has said its blockade will remain in place until the agreement is signed on June 19.

Even so, it could take at least six months before oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are back to pre-conflict levels, and much longer for liquefied natural gas (LNG), due to Iran’s extensive damage to Qatar’s LNG facilities.

Shippers are cautious

A quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 19% of refined petroleum products are carried through the Strait of Hormuz. It also carries about one-fifth of the world’s LNG and a significant share of the global seaborne chemical trade, particularly........

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