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Before the first airstrike hit Iran on Saturday morning, analysts were warning that a war against Tehran would be a highly risky business. The regime has been in place for nearly 50 years, has a huge, well-trained and loyal military, proxies throughout the region and a huge stockpile of ballistic missiles and drones – plenty to wreak havoc across the region and beyond.

And so it has proved. While Israeli and American forces have been pounding targets across the country, Iran has responded by attacking Israel as well as US military targets in neighbouring Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Attacks have also been reported from Cyprus, Iraq and Jordan.

There is a fresh round of fighting in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah joined Iran in targeting Israel. Beirut is being bombarded.

The economic damage to the region has been enormous. Oil refineries have been shut down, the vital strait of Hormuz – through which 20% of the world’s oil cargo passes – is effectively closed, evacuation flights are leaving the Gulf states around the clock and people are cancelling their travel plans in droves.

And within days of the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in a targeted airstrike that also killed a number of his top advisers, a new leader is set to be picked. The smart money appears to be on his son, Mojtaba, known to be cut from very much the same authoritarian clerical cloth as his father. So the notion that with Iran you kill the figurehead and the regime collapses appears to be flawed, to say the least.

Just one week ago, American and Iranian negotiators were engaged in talks in Geneva, which were reported to be making “significant progress”. Now there’s no knowing how this conflict could escalate. On Wednesday, the downing of an Iranian missile over Turkish airspace prompted speculation that Nato would be pulled into a war it clearly doesn’t want. A US submarine sank an Iranian warship in international waters off the coast of Sri Lanka.

There are so many moving parts to this conflict that the sense of jeopardy is at times overwhelming. My email inbox this morning........

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