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It’s still not clear who will turn up in Islamabad tomorrow for the first round of talks aimed at turning the 14-day ceasefire in the Iran war into a permanent end to the crisis. Indeed, it’s not at all certain that the ceasefire will still even exist by then.

To anyone following events, there seemed little, if any, gap between reports that Pakistan had brokered a truce between the warring parties and news that Israel was continuing to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon. But from then the story followed a depressingly familiar path. Iran – backed by Pakistan – claimed that the ceasefire also covered Lebanon. Israel said that it didn’t and it would continue to pound Hezbollah targets there.

For his part, the US president, Donald Trump, said that as far as he was concerned, Israel’s assault on Lebanon was a “separate skirmish”, albeit one of considerable brutality in which 1,400 people were either killed or wounded.

We asked Scott Lucas, of the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin for his take on some of the most important issues which may affect the talks.

Read more: Why is Israel continuing to attack Lebanon, despite the ceasefire? Expert Q&A

The ceasefire was always going to be fragile, even without Israel’s intervention. There’s clearly no goodwill or trust between the warring parties. Trump was less than two hours away from launching an attack on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including its power plants and its bridges – a bombardment so monumental that, as he put it: “A whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again”.

Tehran, for its part, was spitting defiance back at Washington,........

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