On January 3, the world watched in disbelief as the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, was captured by US forces. It was a dramatic geopolitical event that would reverberate not just in Washington and Caracas, but deep into global financial markets.

Financial speculation erupted across prediction platforms, bond markets and even cryptocurrency. It was a frenzy that, for some, translated into enormous profits – something I have looked at closely since 2023.

At the same time, Donald Trump’s personal wealth has reportedly soared amid broader shifts in financial markets and his own crypto ventures. It was reported that the value of the US president’s crypto-related holdings may have increased by US$140 million (£104 million) following the Venezuela raid. It feeds into a broader trend of rapid growth in digital assets tied to the president and his family.

What this episode reveals is not only how geopolitics shapes markets, but how intertwined political power, speculation and personal wealth have become. This matters not just to investors but to ordinary citizens. The world’s future has rarely been more uncertain, but according to American economist Frank Knight, uncertainty is the road to profit.

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet on political or real-world outcomes. Users can buy and sell shares representing yes/no responses concerning the outcome of anything from sporting events, celebrity news or political shakeups. On Polymarket, an online prediction market, one anonymous trader........

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