Russia’s war against Ukraine is not going according to Vladimir Putin’s original plan. The Russian president’s initial strategy called for the war to be won within ten days, but Ukraine’s spirited defence in the first months of the war robbed Russia of the initiative. Now, four and a half years later, the frontline inside Ukraine has remained largely static for months.

Meanwhile, the human cost continues to mount, particularly for the invaders. British intelligence estimates suggest that the number of Russian soldiers killed during the conflict is approaching half a million since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Rumours are growing about a new round of mobilisation.

Ukraine has also intensified drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, targeting both occupied Crimea and locations deep inside Russia, including Moscow and St Petersburg.

Fuel shortages and internet outages are now affecting much of the country, and public frustration appears to be growing. The Russian president himself has publicly acknowledged that Russia is facing difficult circumstances.

There has been a great deal of speculation that Putin’s position is increasingly tenuous. The most recent survey by Russia’s state pollster, VCIOM, for June 22-28, found that Putin’s job approval rating fell to 66.9%, down from 70.4% the previous week. The percentage saying they disapprove of his performance rose from 19.7% to 21.3%. His trust rating, meanwhile, fell from 76.7% to 73.3% over the same period.

It’s Putin’s lowest rating since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022. But this still doesn’t indicate that his presidency is........

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